\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 019 Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) )
Core logic
The outbreak of information innovation in the industry, the acceleration of domestic substitution, and Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) multiple benefits.
Industry Xinchuang will lead to the rapid growth of domestic chip server shipments. Among them, the x86 architecture haiguang chip has ecological advantages. It is expected that the shipments will continue to grow at a high rate, Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) is the primary beneficiary.
Due to the low pue requirements, the penetration rate of liquid cooling technology has increased, Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) as the leader of liquid cooling technology, is the main beneficiary.
Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) grasp the high profit part of the server industry, and the net profit is expected to increase by more than 40% in 2022 (the lowest growth rate in the past five years is 37.71%).
Haiguang information's IPO is imminent, Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) accounting for 32.1% of the shares.
Urban cloud brings annual recurring income and high gross profit margin, which is a stable source of profit.
Urban cloud can be regarded as annual recurring revenue, and the revenue of dawn cloud computing company accounts for 42.21% of software and technical services.
The gross profit margin of the whole software and technical services has been maintained at about 75% for a long time, which is equivalent to that of A-share leading software companies.
Investment suggestions:
The company has gradually changed from a traditional hardware manufacturer to a comprehensive information service provider. We adjusted Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) 's profit forecast:
The total operating revenue in 20212022 will be reduced from the previous 12.22/13.9 billion yuan to 11.184/12.76 billion yuan. The total operating revenue in 2023 is predicted to be 14.787 billion yuan, and the year-on-year growth rates in 20212023 are 10.1%, 14.1% and 15.9% respectively.
The net profit attributable to the parent company in 20212022 increased from the previous 1 / 1.24 billion yuan to 1.134/1.593 billion yuan, and the new net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 is predicted to be 2.207 billion yuan. The year-on-year growth rates in 20212023 are 37.8%, 40.5% and 38.5% respectively.
From 2021 to 2023, the earnings per share (EPS) were 0.78/1.1/1.52 yuan respectively, corresponding to the closing price of 32.14 yuan / share on March 10, 2022, and the PE was 41 / 29 / 21 times respectively. Considering the downward shift of the valuation of comparable companies and other factors, we lowered the PE valuation of the company to 40 times in 2022 and the target price from 53.90 yuan to 44.0 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating of the company.
Risk tip: the epidemic has led to the risk of global economic downturn, the intensification of industry competition has led to the decline of profitability, the breakthrough process of core technology is lower than expected, the process of industry information innovation is lower than expected, the IPO process of haiguang is lower than expected, and the loss risk of the company's core talent team.
