\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 129 Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) )
Key investment points
The performance was in line with expectations, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.02 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 269%.
In 2021, the company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 41.025 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 118%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.020 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 269%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 3.859 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 305%. In 2021q4, the company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 11.936 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.258 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 418%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.365 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 326%.
The production capacity of 210 silicon wafers was accelerated, and the layout of components was initially effective.
At the silicon wafer end, the company’s 210 silicon wafer production capacity is rapid and large-scale, the 50gw production capacity of Inner Mongolia phase V is completed, and the Ningxia phase VI project is put into operation at the end of 2021. It is estimated that by the end of 2022, the total capacity will reach 135gw, of which 210 capacity will exceed 110gw. The company actively promotes the construction of G12 wafer production capacity to support the crystal production capacity. At present, the planned production capacity of G12 wafer has exceeded 105gw. On the component side, the company has mastered the patented technology of exclusively authorized laminated tile and created a dual technology platform of “G12 + efficient laminated tile”. Since 2022, the company has successively won the orders of Three Gorges power, China Resources Power, China Huadian Group 1GW, 1GW and 2.5gw photovoltaic modules.
Deepen the application of industrial 4.0 and take the lead in technology and cost.
Through technological innovation and process progress, the company has led the industry in the production efficiency of a single furnace, and the silicon material consumption rate of unit product has decreased significantly year-on-year. Through the improvement of thin line and flake process, the silicon wafer yield and product a rate have increased significantly, and the gross profit of unit product has been improved to a great extent. With the application of industrial 4.0 and flexible manufacturing intelligent factory production mode in the operation process and operation scenario of the company’s various industrial sectors, the company’s per capita labor productivity has been greatly improved, the product quality and consistency have been continuously improved, the consumption of raw materials and auxiliary materials has been effectively improved, and the factory operation cost has been continuously reduced. The company maintains the first market share in the field of n-type silicon wafers, with a market share of about 60% – 70%.
Profit forecast and valuation
We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.85 billion yuan, 6.0 billion yuan and 8.0 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 253%, 56% and 33% respectively. The corresponding EPS will be 1.19, 1.86 and 2.48 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 39, 25 and 19 times respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
