Medical services II fell 5.37% last week, leading the decline
Last week, pharmaceutical biology closed at 11446.76 points, down 1.98%, ranking the 20th in Shenwan industry, with a lower increase; Medical service II closed at 14530.36 points, down 5.37%; Traditional Chinese Medicine II closed at 7224.73, up 1.36%; Chemical pharmaceutical closed at 11842.02 points, down 3.32%; Biological products II closed at 12946.01 points, down 0.40%; Pharmaceutical Business II closed at 6181.99 points, up 1.44%; Medical device II closed at 9493.70 points, down 0.62%; In terms of the characteristics of rise and fall, the underestimated pharmaceutical business and traditional Chinese medicine sectors led the rise, while the medical services, chemical pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical biology sectors fell significantly, among which the medical services fell the most.
From the performance of Companies in the medical service sector, the top performing companies are: Xinjiang Bai Hua Cun Pharma Tech Co.Ltd(600721) (+ 9.17%), Sino Biological Inc(301047) (+ 8.80%), Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) (+ 6.59%), Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) (+ 4.16%) and Hengkang Medical Group Co.Ltd(002219) (+ 3.98%); Companies with low performance include: Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) (- 19.40%), Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) (- 16.35%), Beijing Sun-Novo Pharmaceutical Research Co.Ltd(688621) (- 12.07%), Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) (- 11.40%) and Guangzheng Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(002524) (- 9.21%). From the characteristics of rise and fall, CXO related companies Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) and life science service companies Sino Biological Inc(301047) performed well; Affected by the lower than expected third quarter report of Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , companies related to private hospitals such as Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Guangzheng Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(002524) made a large correction this week.
PE (TTM) of medical services decreased by 5.27 month on month, and Pb (LF) decreased by 0.57 month on month
Last week, the PE of medical service sector was 85.69, the maximum value of PE in recent year was 189.16 and the minimum value was 74.94; The current Pb is 10.35, the maximum value of Pb in recent years is 14.47, and the minimum value is 9.06. PE in the medical service sector decreased by 5.27 and Pb by 0.57 month on month. PE and Pb in the medical service sector have rebounded from the previous low, but they are still at the bottom level of nearly a year. The premium rate of medical service sector relative to CSI 300 valuation is 546.31%. Although the valuation of the medical service sector is still high statically, considering the high performance growth of specialized hospitals and CXO industry related companies, good industry development trend and policy immunity, the current valuation is more reasonable.
Important information
(1) The medical reform leading group of the State Council issued a document proposing to further promote Sanming medical reform and strive to have more than 300 varieties of national collection by the end of 2022
According to the news on the website of the National Health Commission on October 15, in order to implement the important instructions of the general secretary of Xi Jinping during his inspection in Sanming City, Fujian Province, on October 8, the medical reform leading group of the State Council issued the implementation opinions on deepening the experience of Sanming City, Fujian Province and deepening the reform of the medical and health system (Guo Yi gaifa [2021] No. 2, hereinafter referred to as the Implementation Opinions). The opinions proposed to further promote the experience of Sanming medical reform, and required the pilot to continuously deepen the experience of key reforms – such as encouraging provincial and inter provincial alliances to further carry out centralized drug purchase, accelerating the pilot reform of dip and DRG, and not calculating the salary of medical personnel based on the income of drugs, etc. The specific impact is as follows: 1) carry out the national organization with quantity procurement and gradually expand the scope: Article 3 of the implementation opinions points out that carry out the national organization with quantity procurement of drug consumables in a normalized and institutionalized manner, gradually expand the scope of procurement, and strive to purchase more than 300 common names of drugs by the end of 2022. At the end of the 14th Five Year Plan period, the number of common names of drugs purchased by each province, state and provincial organizations in a centralized manner should exceed 500. Strengthen the procurement and inventory management of medical institutions to meet the requirements of centralized volume procurement. 2) Promote the multi-element composite medical insurance payment mode focusing on payment by disease: Article 8 of the implementation opinions emphasizes that we should deepen the reform of medical insurance payment mode, promote the multi-element composite medical insurance payment mode focusing on payment by disease, gradually reduce the proportion of medical insurance fund paying by project, and improve the group payment related to disease diagnosis, payment by disease score, payment by bed day Proportion of outpatient capitation payment and other medical insurance payment methods. By 2025, the proportion of medical insurance funds grouped by disease diagnosis or paid by disease will reach 70% of all eligible inpatient medical insurance funds; At the same time, Article 17 further requires to accelerate the reform pilot of group payment related to disease diagnosis, total budget of regional point method and payment by disease score. All pilot cities will enter the actual payment stage by the end of 2021, summarize experience in time and promote it throughout the country. Encourage the exploration of payment methods in line with the characteristics of traditional Chinese medicine services. 3) Establish a dynamic adjustment mechanism for medical service prices, and implement Article 6 of the opinions, which requires all localities to reform and optimize the government’s rules of conduct for setting medical service prices in accordance with laws and regulations, timely adjust the catalogue of cost supervision and price hearing, and allow the competent price departments to investigate costs and listen to opinions in a concise and easy way. Strengthen the price monitoring and evaluation of public hospitals, and accelerate the establishment of a monitoring system for the price, cost, expense, income distribution and reform operation of medical services in public medical institutions, so as to provide a basis for the implementation of dynamic adjustment of medical service prices. Article 16 further points out to optimize the management of new medical service price items, select some provinces to formulate management measures for new medical service price items, simplify the application process of new price items, accelerate the acceptance and review progress, clarify the handling time limit, and promote the innovative development and clinical application of medical technology. Explore and improve the price items of pharmaceutical medical services. 4) Deepen the reform of the salary system in public hospitals: for the reform of the salary system in public hospitals, Article 20 of the implementation opinions encourages all localities to explore and deepen the reform of the salary system in public hospitals in combination with the actual situation, explore the implementation of annual salary system, post salary system, agreed salary system, project salary and other salary forms, and gradually establish a salary system reflecting post responsibilities and knowledge value, Give play to the effective incentive role of the salary system. Encourage and support local governments to explore salary distribution policies conducive to mobilizing the service enthusiasm of grass-roots medical and health institutions. Fully consider the characteristics of traditional Chinese medicine service and promote the reform of salary system in the field of traditional Chinese medicine in combination with practice.
We believe that, with the continuous promotion of medical reform with the linkage and coordination of medicine, medical treatment and medical insurance, the state has made remarkable achievements in reducing drug prices, allowing people to use low-cost and good drugs and reducing medical expenditure, but the problem of difficult and expensive medical treatment has not been fundamentally solved. At present, the medical reform has entered the deep-water area. In the future, the state will continue to Take Sanming medical reform as a model and continue to promote medical reform: 1) in terms of specific impact, the state will continue to encourage medical innovation and make people have medicine available; 2) Continuously reduce drug prices through various forms of volume purchase and medical insurance negotiation; 3) Promote the multi-element compound medical insurance payment mode based on payment by disease, and improve the utilization efficiency of medical insurance fund; 4) Gradually raise the price of medical services, increase the salary of doctors, and fundamentally solve the problem of supporting doctors with drugs. It is suggested to pay attention to CXO related companies in the “innovation” industrial chain and private hospital related companies in the “policy immunization”.
Investment advice
In the long run, under the background of deepening medical reform, the medical service sector has good growth and policy immunity: (1) as a “water seller” of innovative drugs, the CXO sector will continue to benefit from China’s innovation wave, and China’s labor cost has great advantages. The CXO sector will continue to benefit from the transfer of global industrial chain. The vigorous development of cell and gene therapy in China will also inject new momentum into cdmo enterprises; (2) Under the trend of aging, specialized medical services benefit from policy support and the enhancement of residents’ awareness of health care, and the consumption attribute is obvious. We maintain the “overweight” rating of the medical service sector, and suggest paying attention to the medical service Ophthalmology, Stomatology, innovative drug industry chain cro, cdmo and other related companies.
Risk statement
(1) Uncertainty of policy changes; (2) The R & D investment of innovative drugs is less than expected; (3) Risk that the performance of the industry and listed companies is lower than expected.
