Fundamentals: prosperity is upward, light total volume and heavy structure. Under the background of chip shortage in 2021, the sales volume is under pressure, the industry inventory is at a historical low, the replenishment cycle + demand recovery, and the growth rate of passenger car sales in 2022 is expected to be more than 10%. The industry is in the big cycle of electric intelligent transformation, and the investment in the sector should be light on the total amount and heavy on the structure. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 20%. Intelligent driving is at the critical point of explosion, and attention should be paid to the market of the automobile sector.
Complete vehicle: the logic of independent rise continues to deduce. Due to the early layout of independent brands in electrification and intelligence, and the new forces and heads independently continue to seize the share of joint venture brands, we believe that the interpretation of independent rise in 2022 will be more fully driven by the following three factors: 1) the mainstream price of pure electricity has been improved and the models have been further enriched; 2) Independently ushered in the first year of hybrid, challenging the 100000-200000 fuel vehicle market; 3) With the acceleration of intelligence, the independent advantage is more obvious.
Parts: pay attention to the historic opportunities of parts. Great changes have taken place in the competition pattern of the whole vehicle industry, the new forces and the head’s independent market share will continue to increase, and the speed of model iteration will accelerate, which will greatly improve the requirements of vehicle enterprises for the response service efficiency of parts enterprises. The fixed zero relationship in the past is expected to be broken, the domestic parts industry chain will rise with the trend, and the industry will usher in reconstruction. Based on the industrial development trend, we are optimistic about the five major tracks in the parts sector from top to bottom: 1) customer expansion dimension: Tesla industrial chain has the strongest certainty, focusing on the investment opportunities of Tesla industrial chain; 2) New energy increment: the three electricity system brings aluminum die casting increment, and the penetration of aluminum die casting of body and chassis improves, which jointly drives the demand of the whole lightweight plate, and focuses on recommending investment opportunities for the new trend of integrated die casting industry; 3) Broken situation of import substitution: focus on recommending investment opportunities for localization of passenger car seats; 4) Core technology drive: focus on line control and air suspension; 5) Intelligent acceleration: L3 intelligent vehicles equipped with NVIDIA Orin and Qualcomm snapdragon will be mass produced one after another. L3 will be popularized rapidly, focusing on the core links of intelligent driving and areas with enhanced sense of science and technology.
Investment suggestion: for the whole vehicle sector, focus on the hybrid + pure electric + Intelligent Geely Automobile, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) . Parts sector, focusing on the core target of Tesla industrial chain Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) ; Leading integrated die casting enterprises Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) ; The localization of passenger car seats is Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) from 0 to 1; Brake by wire independent faucet Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ; The core target of intelligent driving is Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) . It is recommended to pay attention to air suspension faucet Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) and intelligent cockpit faucet Foryou Corporation(002906) .
Risk warning: downstream demand is lower than expected; Chip recovery is less than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
