Resumption of Volkswagen products: performance in 21 years is under pressure, but there are opportunities in danger
1. Popular products sector: the overall performance of the sector has been under pressure in 21 years, and the performance of sub sectors is different
1) Overall performance: the performance of the popular products sector was slightly weak in 21 years, mainly due to the slow recovery of terminal demand; At the same time, the cost of raw materials continues to rise, resulting in greater cost pressure on the industry. The revenue of 21q1-q3 food processing sector decreased by 3% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 20% year-on-year;
2) Segments: individual segments have outstanding performance, beer, dairy, baking and brine products have relatively good performance, and 21q1-q3 has achieved double growth of revenue and profit; The profit side of leisure snacks, condiments and pre-processing decreased year-on-year.
2. Popular products sector: the stock price trend of most sub sectors is weaker than that of CSI 300, and the current valuation of the sector is at a medium low level
1) In addition to beer, the rise of other sub sectors from the beginning of 2021 to December 13 is less than CSI 300. In 2021, only the beer sector rose by 30.43%, and other sub sectors showed declines of different ranges.
2) According to the distribution of valuation data from 2016 to 2021, the current valuation level of the popular products sector is in the quantile of 40% – 55%, among which the valuation of food processing, pre-processing food and halogen products is at a historically low level, and the valuation of condiments, dairy products, baked goods, beer and snacks is in the normal range. Resumption of seasoning plate: the plate was under pressure in 21 years, and the performance and valuation were both killed
① Share price: the market value of condiment sector decreased by 54.6% on average in 21 years;
② Valuation: the first three quarters of 21 years experienced a valuation stage, and the expectation of Q4 strong price increase led to the rise of valuation. Overall, over the past 21 years, the average PE valuation of the sector has decreased from 100 times to 41 times, and the valuation is in the upper middle position in history.
③ Performance: Overall, the revenue of 21q1-q3 is flat, the profit is – 8% year-on-year, and the performance is weak. The core influencing factors of the pressure on the sector in 21 years: the impact of community group purchase, the continuous upward cost, and the recovery of terminal demand is less than expected. Dairy resumption: industry competition slows down and profitability improves
① Industry competition slowed down and profitability improved.
In terms of revenue and profit, the revenue of 21q1-q3 dairy sector increased by 17.4% year-on-year, the revenue of 21q3 increased by 9.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate narrowed compared with + 10.39% in Q2; The net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q1-q3 increased by 35.1% year-on-year, and that of 21q3 increased by 17.1% year-on-year. The growth rate changed from negative to positive compared with – 3.0% in Q2.
From the perspective of profitability: the gross profit margin of dairy sector 21q1-q3 is 32.6%, down 2.4pct compared with the same period last year, which has not yet returned to the level before the epidemic, mainly due to the continuous rise in the price of raw materials, which puts great pressure on the cost side of enterprises. The net interest rate of 21q1-q3 was 7.3%, an increase of 0.7pct compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the impact of the rise in raw material costs, the slowdown of industrial competition and the improvement of the profitability of major companies.
② The price of raw milk has risen and the current increase has shrunk. Due to the continuous rise in the price of corn soybean meal feed and the shortage of dairy cattle, and the continuous increase in the demand side of dairy products, the price of raw milk has risen all the way. The current round of raw milk price rise began in the middle of 2020. In August 2021, the average price of fresh milk reached 4.38 yuan / kg. Since 21q3, the increase of milk price has slowed down.
③ The valuation of the sector fell and the stock price was stable. In 2021, the valuation of CITIC dairy products sector fell, and the stock price performance was relatively stable. As of December 13, 2021, the valuation of the sector decreased by 14% compared with the beginning of 2021. The share price performance is relatively stable.
