It is expected that the top cloud manufacturers will enter the expansion cycle in 2022: according to the prediction of dell’orogroup, the global data center capital expenditure will increase by 17% year-on-year in 2022, including the data center expenditure of super large-scale cloud service providers will increase by 30% year-on-year, and the data center capital expenditure of the top four cloud service providers (Amazon, Google, meta and Microsoft) is expected to exceed US $20 billion, According to the data analysis, the capital expenditure of head cloud manufacturers will enter the expansion cycle in 2022. The world’s top ten cloud service providers plan to build new data centers in more than 30 regions next year, and will increase investment in new server architecture and network upgrading. Cloud service providers will also increase spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, make the company deploy applications more intelligent and automated, and lay the foundation for the layout of the meta universe.
The growth of data traffic brought by yuancosmos is the bottom driver of the demand for data communication optical modules: according to the third quarter performance conference of meta, the company expects capital expenditure to be about 19 billion US dollars in 2021 and 29-34 billion US dollars in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 50% – 70%, mainly investing in data centers, servers, network infrastructure and office facilities, An important factor driving the increase of capital expenditure is the investment in artificial intelligence and machine learning functions. In the long run, as meta turns its business model to metauniverse, capital expenditure investment will be driven by video and computing intensive applications such as AR and VR. The development of yuancosmos has brought high-speed growth of traffic demand, which can most intuitively affect the infrastructure industry chain at the traffic and data transmission end. According to the data of the Ministry of industry and information technology, the cumulative traffic of mobile Internet in the first three quarters of 2021 reached 160.8 billion GB, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%. As a photoelectric signal conversion equipment, optical module is the core hardware basis for data flow conversion between the virtual space of meta universe and the real space where the server is located. Optical communication industry chain suppliers are expected to fully benefit from the upsurge of meta universe construction.
Meta universe AI layout promotes rapid iteration of data transmission technology: leading cloud manufacturers are increasing spending on new infrastructure tailored for AI workload. Some Tier1 cloud manufacturers are deploying 400gbps and higher rate Ethernet networks to ensure that the server connection will not be limited as the data set becomes larger. At present, the demand for 200g / 400g high-speed optical modules driven by large data centers is rapidly released. The development of metauniverse will further increase the demand for cloud computing and big data, which will further promote the optical module market to move towards high-speed and high-end optical modules. Lightcounting predicts that the optical module market will increase from $8 billion in 2020 to $14.5 billion in 2026. Among them, the sales volume of 400g / 800g high-speed optical modules will account for 60%. With the business growth of Internet manufacturers, the volume of data communication has exceeded the carrying capacity of existing data centers, and the marginal cost of data information transmission is increasing day by day. Under the framework of silicon photonic technology, photoelectric transmission devices have the advantage that the production capacity is inversely proportional to the cost, which helps the data center to improve the reliability of information transmission with lower energy consumption, expand the multi-functional embedding mode, and meet the needs of large-scale data transmission in the future. According to Intel’s official information, Intel Research Institute recently established an Integrated Optoelectronics Research Center for data center interconnection to accelerate the innovation of optical interconnection input / output (I / O) technology in performance expansion and integration, focusing on silicon optoelectronics, CMOS circuit and link architecture, packaging integration and optical fiber coupling.
The competitiveness of Chinese optical module manufacturers has entered the world’s advanced ranks: at present, Chinese optical module enterprises have covered 10g, 25g and 40g products, and Chinese 100g, 400g and other products have realized the whole product layout. China has Accelink Technologies Co.Ltd(002281) , Huagong Zhengyuan and other enterprises with the layout of the whole industrial chain, and some Chinese enterprises have become the core suppliers of overseas leading manufacturers. According to lightcounting, among the top ten optical module manufacturers in the world in 2020, Chinese manufacturers occupy 5 places. In addition, manufacturers outside China have begun to layout 800g optical module products. Many Chinese manufacturers have launched new products earlier than overseas leading manufacturers. Chinese manufacturers are expected to gain the first mover advantage in the competition of 800g generation in the future.
It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhongji Innolight Co.Ltd(300308) (300308. SZ), Eoptolink Technology Inc.Ltd(300502) (300502. SZ), T&S Communications Co.Ltd(300570) (300570. SZ), Cig Shanghai Co.Ltd(603083) (603083. SH), Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.Ltd(300394) (300394. SZ)
Risk tip: the capital expenditure of cloud manufacturers is less than expected, the risk of intensified market competition, the risk of raw material price fluctuation, and the risk of insufficient chip supply
