In November, the output of new energy vehicles was 379400, with a month on month ratio of + 97% / + 26%, in line with market expectations: according to the data of GGII insurance caliber, the output of new energy vehicles in November 2021 was 379400, with a year-on-year increase of 97% and a month on month increase of 26%. Among them, the output of passenger cars was 364500, with a year-on-year increase of 105% and a month on month increase of 25%. Among them, the output of pure electric passenger cars increased to 294300, with a year-on-year increase of 96% and a month on month increase of 24%; The output of passenger cars was 5666, a year-on-year decrease of 18% and a month on month increase of 71%; The output of special vehicles was 9302, with a year-on-year increase of 12% and a month on month increase of 24%. From January to November 2021, the cumulative output of electric vehicles reached 2.507 million, an increase of 97% year-on-year, maintaining a high-speed growth; The cumulative production of passenger cars was 2.412 million, a year-on-year increase of 161%; The cumulative production of passenger cars was 34300, a year-on-year decrease of 23%; The total production of special vehicles was 60300, a year-on-year increase of 12%.
The installed power in November was 18.14gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 102% and a month on month increase of 39%. 1) In November, the installed capacity of Sanyuan was 8.62gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 68%, a month on month increase of 39%, and the installed capacity accounted for 48%; Sanyuan’s accumulated installed power from January to November 2021 was 61.68gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 92%, accounting for 55%. 2) In November, lithium iron phosphate increased by 172% year-on-year, 39% month on month, and the installed capacity accounted for 52%; in November, the installed capacity of lithium iron was 9.48 GWH, a year-on-year increase of 172%, 39% month on month, and the installed capacity accounted for 52%; From January to November 2021, the cumulative installed power of lithium iron phosphate was 50.21gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 217%, accounting for 44%.
In terms of the average charging capacity of various models, the average charging capacity of pure electric passenger cars and pure electric special vehicles increased month on month in November, and that of pure electric buses decreased slightly month on month. In November, the single vehicle charging capacity of pure electric passenger vehicles was 49.01kwh/vehicle, with a year-on-year increase of 12.64% and a month on month increase of 10.45%. The average charging capacity from January to November 2021 was 46.66kwh/vehicle. In November, the average single vehicle charging capacity of pure electric buses was 222.72kwh/vehicle, a year-on-year decrease of 1.36% and a month on month decrease of 1.01%. The average charging capacity from January to November 2021 was 215.58kwh/vehicle. In November, the average single vehicle charging capacity of pure electric special vehicles increased to 109.14kwh/vehicle, with a year-on-year increase of 89.89% and a month on month increase of 7.05%. The average charging capacity from January to November 2021 was 87.60kwh/vehicle.
From the perspective of battery manufacturers, the installed capacity of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in November was 9.80gwh (including SAIC), an increase of 113.6% year-on-year and 47.6% month on month. The market share of installed capacity in a single month was 54.0%, ranking first. Byd Company Limited(002594) ranked second in installed capacity, with an installed capacity of 3.59gwh in November, a year-on-year increase of 201.3%, a month on month increase of 28.0%, and the installed capacity accounted for 19.8%. The third place was AVIC lithium battery, with an installed capacity of 0.94gwh in November, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%, a month on month increase of 45.2%, and the installed capacity accounted for 5.2%.
High market concentration, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) maintains a leading position. In November, the installed capacity of the top five companies in the lithium iron phosphate market accounted for 92.3% in total, with high market concentration, of which the installed capacity of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (including SAIC) and Byd Company Limited(002594) accounted for 44.5% and 35.9% respectively. The ternary market is mainly concentrated in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , AVIC lithium battery, Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Byd Company Limited(002594) and other enterprises. The installed capacity of the top five manufacturers accounts for 81.8% of the market share, of which the installed capacity of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (including SAIC) accounts for 64.7%, significantly ahead of other enterprises; The market share of installed capacity of AVIC lithium battery, Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Byd Company Limited(002594) is 9.0%, 2.7%, 3.2% and 2.1% respectively.
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the battery link that will be profitable and repaired next year. The long-term pattern is the best. Next year’s demand also includes energy storage support, leading Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , second-line Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) (attention), followed by high nickel ternary positive electrodes ( Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) ), structural parts ( Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ) and additives ( Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ) that benefit from the upgrading of battery technology in the near future; Iron lithium technology upgrade ( Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ); Again, the negative electrode ( Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) ), copper foil ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) (attention), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ), diaphragm ( Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ), lithium carbonate ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (attention), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (attention)), electrolyte ( Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) ) that will continue to be in short supply next year.
Risk tip: the sales volume is less than expected, the policy is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensified.
