Key points:
In the post epidemic era, the pharmaceutical industry gradually recovered and the sub sections continued to differentiate
In 2021, under the general trend of medical insurance expense control and medical insurance expenditure “Tenglong for bird”, the fine molecule segment of the pharmaceutical industry was significantly differentiated, the epidemic benefit and CXO segment performed prominently, and generic drugs and high-value consumables were under pressure under centralized purchase. Although from 2015 to 2020, the growth of total health expenditure investment shows a slowing trend, it is still higher than the GDP growth rate in the same period. In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, the revenue of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry declined, but it has gradually recovered in 2021. As of October 2021, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) manufacturing industry’s operating revenue was 2352.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, and the total profit was 492.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.7%. The pharmaceutical industry has gradually recovered in the post epidemic era.
Under the new medical reform, the melody of “innovation” remains unchanged, and the industrial chain changes from “strategic layout” to “beach landing”
Although the medical reform has achieved phased results over the past decade, it can be seen that the current expenditure growth rate of medical insurance funds is greater than the income growth rate, and the pressure is still great. Under the normalization of volume procurement, the future payment structure of medical insurance funds will be further adjusted: compress the part of falsely high drug prices and transfer to clinical urgently needed drugs and medical services, so as to maximize the use efficiency of medical insurance funds.
In the future, with the implementation of DRG / dip, the pharmaceutical structure will continue to be optimized. It is suggested to pay attention to the policy “immunization” consumer medical related companies. With the favorable supply and demand of innovative drug enterprises at both ends, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) enterprises pay more attention to R & D and innovation in recent years. R & D investment shows an increasing trend year by year, which will be conducive to the development of the innovation Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain. But at the same time, we also observed that under the condition of continuous optimization of innovation, there is also differentiation within the high-quality track. We believe that in the next few years, the innovation Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain will gradually move from the previous “strategic layout” to the “beach landing” stage, and the relevant companies that really realize the large amount of innovation are expected to benefit significantly.
When aging meets the new medical reform, it is recommended to “innovate” and “immunize” the consumer medical industry chain:
(1) Innovative drug seller “CXO” industrial chain company: the continuous improvement of global pharmaceutical R & D investment and R & D outsourcing penetration makes the CXO market scale maintain a high growth rate; Due to its human resource cost advantage and innovation ability, China CXO company will continue to benefit from the general trend of overseas capacity transfer to China. At the same time, China’s new medical reform and good pharmaceutical venture capital financing environment make pharmaceutical R & D in full swing. It is expected that the CXO industry is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of more than 20% in the next 3-5 years. It is recommended to focus on clinical cro leading companies and back-end cro / cdmo companies.
(2) Private specialized medical services: with the growth of disposable income and the improvement of health awareness, the medical market has gradually transformed from a disease driven market (i.e. treating the sick) to a health driven market (i.e. providing medical services and actively improving the quality of life). Consumer medical treatment shows an upward trend. The state continues to encourage social capital to run hospitals. Private specialized hospitals are small under policy suppression. It is suggested to focus on leading companies of specialized medical services such as stomatology and ophthalmology.
(3) Third party medical laboratory: the aging, the enhancement of health awareness and the surge of chronic disease cases urge people to find and take active preventive measures as soon as possible, which will promote the demand for medical testing. Independent medical laboratories have many testing items and strong technical ability, which have obvious advantages over the hospital’s own testing departments. It is expected that with the continuous improvement of inspection demand and ICL penetration, the scale of China’s ICL industry will continue to maintain steady growth. It is recommended to pay attention to ICL leading companies.
Risk statement
The implementation of medical insurance cost control exceeded expectations; The R & D investment of pharmaceutical enterprises decreased; Medical malpractice risk in private hospitals.
