The demand for automatic driving and new energy vehicles remains unchanged, and there is several times the growth space for vehicle storage chips, vehicle CIS and vehicle MCU. 1. Benefiting from the increased demand for autonomous driving and new energy vehicles, the scale of vehicle storage chip market will continue to expand, with DRAM and NAND as the focus of demand. It is expected that the number of DRAM and NAND for single vehicle will increase by 5 times / 10 times in 21-25 years, and the value of single vehicle will increase by more than 4 times. The overall scale of vehicle storage market will reach US $8.8 billion in 25 years and 53% CAGR in 21-25 years. 2. The improvement of automatic driving level will also promote the continuous improvement of the number of vehicle cameras and pixels, and the corresponding vehicle CIS will continue to increase in volume. It is expected that the number of cameras carried by a single vehicle will increase from 2 in 21 years to 6 in 25 years, and the value of a single vehicle will increase from $18.8 to $57.8. We estimate that the global vehicle CIS market will reach $5.75 billion in 25 years, and the CAGR will exceed 32% in 21-25 years. 3. The demand for automotive electronic and intelligent off vehicle MCU has doubled (about 70 traditional automotive MCUs, 100-200 new energy vehicles, and more than 300 automotive MCUs above L2). The global automotive MCU market will reach US $6.6 billion in 2020 and is expected to reach US $8.8 billion by 2023.
The localization rate of the three car chip tracks is low, and there are obvious opportunities for domestic substitution. We believe that there will be several times more space for growth in the three subdivision tracks of vehicle storage chips, vehicle CIS and vehicle MCU in the next 5 years. At present, the market share of Chinese manufacturers is insufficient (the localization rate of vehicle storage is about 10% / CIS of vehicles is around 20% / MCU of vehicles is less than 5%). We believe that with the rapid development of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) and autopilot cars, we will superimpose domestic opportunities. Chinese manufacturers will usher in opportunities for accelerated development.
5g + AI + IOT catalyzes the continuous and vigorous application of aiot, focusing on the investment opportunities of security SOC chip and multimedia SOC chip. Interconnection of all things is the future development trend. With the acceleration of 5g business process and the development of Internet of things technology, the downstream intelligent application scenarios of aiot are gradually enriched. It is expected that the global Internet of things devices will reach 24.6 billion in 2025, CAGR will reach 14% in 20-25 years, and the number of Internet of things connections in China will double to 15 billion in 25 years, which drives the continuous strong demand for the whole SOC chip. We are optimistic that security and multimedia SOC will take the lead in benefiting: 1. Due to the pursuit of HD and intelligence in the era of "Pan security", the number of IPC + nvrsoc chips is increased. The ISP module in IPC increases the HD. We estimate that the global IPC market will reach US $1.4 billion in 2025 and the CAGR will be 9% in 21-25 years. Aiipc and nvrsoc chips enhance the intelligent effect and drive the increase in the demand for high-performance security video solutions. It is expected that the scale of China's NVR market will reach 1.1 billion yuan by 23 years and the CAGR will be 14% from 21 to 23 years. 2. In the field of multimedia SOC, we are optimistic about the large demand for intelligent set-top box chips and AI chips: 1) at present, more than 300 telecom operators in the world are gradually upgrading from traditional set-top boxes to intelligent set-top boxes (the current penetration rate is about 50%, and we expect it to increase to about 70% in the next five years), which will drive the continuous growth of the demand for intelligent set-top box chips, We estimate that by 2025, the market scale of intelligent set-top box chip will reach US $3.42 billion, and the CAGR will be 9% in 21-25 years. 2) In the field of AI chips, the whole house intelligence is the future development trend, and the smart speaker is the entrance. It is estimated that the global smart home shipment CAGR will reach 12% in 21-25 years, and the explosion of superposition universe will drive the demand of the whole AI chip to increase greatly. It is estimated that the global AI chip market scale will reach US $72.6 billion in 2025, and the CAGR will be 29% in 21-25 years.
Investment advice
Recommended targets for attention: Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) (leading Chinese storage and MCU), Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) (leading global automotive CIS industry), Ingenic Semiconductor Co.Ltd(300223) (leading global automotive storage), Rockchip Electronics Co.Ltd(603893) (leading Chinese high-end security chip), Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) (leading global intelligent set-top box chip).
Risk statement
Risk of insufficient wafer capacity; The sales of autonomous driving and new energy vehicles were lower than expected; The promotion of Internet of things technology is less than expected; Security chip market demand is lower than expected.
