Core view
The production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to increase, and the battery recycling boom was prominent. Firstly, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles began to break out and grow around 2015. Driven by new energy vehicles, the loading level of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) batteries has gradually increased in recent years. As of November 2021, the monthly loading level of power batteries in China has reached 20.82gwh, a record high. Secondly, with the passage of time, new energy power batteries will gradually approach the retirement life. The service life of new energy passenger vehicles is about 4-6 years. If calculated by 5 years, the total scale of retired power batteries to be scrapped in 2030 may reach 2.373 million tons, including 1.531 million tons of lithium iron phosphate battery and 842000 tons of ternary battery. Thirdly, at present, the overall scale of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery recycling enterprises is relatively small, the number of recycling enterprises recognized by the state is only 27, and there is an imbalance between supply and demand in the industry. Therefore, the prosperity of the power recovery industry is gradually emerging.
Driven by resource recovery benefits and policies, power battery recycling will create a large space. In terms of resource recovery benefits, power batteries contain a large number of recyclable high-value metals. Taking ternary batteries as an example, the nickel content is as high as 12%. In terms of policy, the heavy metals contained in waste power batteries have a serious impact on the environment, which makes the state or relevant enterprises pay attention to battery recycling. Driven by both recycling benefits and policies, it is expected that the battery recycling industry will make considerable development in the future. Among them, the echelon utilization technology of power battery will gradually show its economic benefits with the technological progress and the advent of retirement tide, and the market space for disassembly and recycling will be gradually enlarged. It is expected that its market space will reach 107.43 billion yuan by 2030.
The recycling industry process is mature, and the three recycling processes have their own advantages. At present, the mainstream recovery methods of retired batteries include physical recovery, wet recovery and thermal recovery. Physical recycling is divided into automatic disassembly and recycling remanufacturing, which has high economy. The wet recovery process is relatively more mature, with low requirements for equipment and operation, high product purity, and high recovery efficiency for metal substances in batteries, but there is a certain cost in pollution control. The process flow of thermal recovery is short and suitable for the treatment of large-scale waste batteries, but this method also puts forward some requirements for power consumption.
Power battery recycling is still in the early stage of exploration, and the industry alliance may be the mainstream business model in the future. There are three main modes of power battery recycling industry in the future, namely: power battery production enterprise recycling, third-party enterprise recycling, and Industry Alliance composed of battery, automobile, recycling plant and other enterprises for recycling. From the comparison of the three business models, the industry alliance recycling model may become the mainstream business model of the industry in the future. In the first mock exam, power battery manufacturers can provide battery waste and provide new sales for the new batteries. The automobile manufacturers can provide recycling channels for the used batteries. The third party recycling enterprises can achieve efficient recovery of power batteries through their own technological advantages.
Investment advice
Under the background of the gradual large-scale recovery of power battery industry, enterprises with integration advantages in the field of power battery manufacturing and recovery will have more investment opportunities. Relevant targets include: Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Xtc New Energy Materials( Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) .
Risk statement
The promotion policy of new energy vehicles changed, the price of precious metals fluctuated sharply, and the breakthrough of battery recycling technology was less than expected.
