event
The national energy administration has released seven key tasks for next year’s energy work, focusing on promoting technological breakthroughs in major fields such as gas turbine, nuclear power, renewable energy, oil and gas, energy storage and hydrogen energy, and striving to make breakthroughs in green and low-carbon cutting-edge technologies.
The Ministry of Finance issued the notice of the Tariff Commission of the State Council on the tariff adjustment plan for 2022, reducing the import tax rate of fuel cell superchargers, circulating pumps, membrane electrodes, bipolar plates, carbon electrode sheets and other products from 7-10% to 2-5%.
Key investment points
The hydrogen energy policy is constantly favorable, and the industry is in the cultivation period of 0 to 1. The reduction of import tax rate of core parts of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, on the one hand, will accelerate the commercialization of fuel cell vehicles, on the other hand, it is also expected to accelerate the introduction, digestion and absorption of overseas technologies and promote domestic substitution. National and local industrial plans have been continuously issued. China has formed three hydrogen fuel cell demonstration urban agglomerations in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai and Guangdong, with a demonstration period of four years. 30 provinces in China have introduced policies related to hydrogen energy. With the gradual implementation of supporting policies, the industry’s technological progress and cost decline are expected to accelerate. At present, the industry is in the cultivation period of 0 to 1, and there is a trend of mass production of core components such as electrolytic cell and proton exchange membrane.
The price of lithium carbonate continues to rise, and the hydrogen energy industry ushers in layout opportunities. Recently, China’s Salt Lake production has been reduced by 40% in winter, Chile’s left-wing election, the centralized launch of lithium iron phosphate capacity, and Australia’s Pilbara’s 10% reduction in lithium ore shipping guidelines have exacerbated the tension between supply and demand of lithium resources. The price of lithium carbonate has recently exceeded 250000 yuan / ton. The market is worried that downstream car enterprises have greatly raised the price of electric vehicles, and consumers at the C-end may choose not to pay, This will affect the prosperity of the whole new energy vehicles. As an alternative to lithium electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have attracted great attention from the market recently under the background of the sharp rise in the price of lithium carbonate. In addition, the hydrogen energy index has increased by 23.2% since November, while the new energy vehicle index has increased by only 0.1% in the same period.
The hydrogen energy industry is about to usher in a 10 fold growth, and the trillion track is opening. According to the 2020 report on the development of China’s hydrogen energy industry, it is estimated that China’s hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be close to 100000 by 2025. At present, the cumulative sales of fuel cells in China is 8313, and there is expected to be 10 times more room for growth during the 14th five year plan period. The accelerated development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry is expected to drive the multi link application expansion of upstream hydrogen production and storage, midstream hydrogen fuel cell and downstream vehicle, and the industry market space is expected to exceed trillion.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to relevant enterprises actively distributing the hydrogen energy industry chain. 1) Fuel cell stack and proton exchange membrane manufacturers with independent technology; 2) Enterprises that realize hydrogen energy layout through equity participation.
Risk factors: hydrogen energy project construction fails to meet expectations; Subsidies have declined sharply; Risks of technological change, etc.
