Core view:
In recent years, with a large number of new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaic replacing conventional units, interactive energy consumption equipment such as electric vehicles, distributed energy and energy storage are widely used. The new energy structure challenges the stability of power grid. In order to adapt to the grid connection and consumption of new energy under the situation of “double high” and “double peak”, it is urgent to promote the transformation and upgrading of power system.
UHV solves the problems of power supply and demand mismatch and new energy consumption. UHV can transmit electric energy such as southwest hydropower, northwest coal power and scenery to the eastern load center. During the 14th five year plan and the 15th five year plan, China will continue to strengthen the construction of UHV DC backbone channels and UHV AC synchronous power grids, and promote the interconnection of transnational power grids. It is estimated that the total investment of UHV during the 14th Five Year Plan period will reach 300 billion yuan.
This year, the power load of many places reached a new high, causing the problem of local power shortage. To solve the problem of power shortage in peak load, it is not enough to rely solely on the source side and market regulation mechanism, and the expansion and transformation of distribution network is also an important link. The increase of terminal electrification rate brings the demand for distribution network expansion, and the two-way trend of power grid gives birth to incremental transformation space. We are optimistic about the opportunities for localization of high-end equipment.
Energy storage is a high-quality flexible resource, which can cut peak and fill valley within the capacity range and maintain the instantaneous balance of power system. Electrochemical energy storage will occupy the absolute main force in the new energy storage. Energy storage: the power generation side depends on the ratio of new energy; The grid side is closely related to the peak load; The user side is greatly affected by the peak valley price difference. We predict that by the end of 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage in China will reach 44.2gw, with a CAGR of about 68.4% during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Electrochemical energy storage has increased by 12.5 times in five years, and trillion blue oceans can be expected.
The change of energy structure brings about the change of distribution network structure. A large number of new energy and flexible loads will be connected to the power grid to meet the customized power supply demand. The boundary of source network load storage tends to be blurred and the level is richer. The demand for data collection, transmission, processing and application of source network load storage has increased significantly. The digital transformation of power grid is the general trend, and digitization depends on information construction.
Power grid informatization covers a wide range of contents. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the investment in power grid informatization accelerated. We predict that the power grid informatization investment will exceed 74 billion yuan in 2025, an increase of more than 120% over 2020, and the five-year CAGR will be about 17.5%, accounting for 12.8% of the total power grid investment from 6%. The market share of centralized procurement of information equipment by the State Grid headquarters is relatively concentrated, and the participation of private enterprises in information service is high.
The application of acquisition, terminal and non electric sensing equipment is the premise of power grid digitization. The customization of the new generation of smart meters has improved, the replacement demand has spawned an incremental market, and the value of a single meter has increased significantly. In addition, the smart IOT watt hour meter is expected to maintain a high growth rate.
In 2020, the State Grid put forward ten key construction tasks of “new digital infrastructure”, including power grid digital platform and energy big data center, with a total investment of about 24.7 billion yuan throughout the year. “Digital new infrastructure” involves a variety of digital and intelligent technologies, including technologies that have been widely used such as big data and cloud computing, as well as technologies with few applications but great potential such as 5g, blockchain and digital twin.
Risk warning: the power grid investment is less than expected, and the new energy installation is less than expected; Intensified industry competition, etc.
