New energy vehicles: global rapid growth
The global new energy vehicle market showed explosive growth. In mid November, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car sales reached 450000, an increase of 121% at the same time. In the first 11 months, the cumulative sales reached 2.99 million, an increase of 167% at the same time.
In the European market, the core five countries Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Spain all grew strongly.
In the first November of this year, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in Germany, Britain and France increased by 92%, 87% and 77% respectively year-on-year. In addition, the year-on-year growth rate in Italy and Spain exceeded 100%.
Global policy escort
At present, automobile electrification is developing rapidly, and all countries are seizing the commanding height of industry development.
In the Chinese market, according to the policies issued by the four ministries and commissions in 2020, the subsidy standard in 2022 is expected to decrease by 30% compared with that in 2021.
In the European market, the fitfor55 plan was released on July 2021 to further reduce carbon emissions. At present, German Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars are developing fastest in the European market, and German subsidies will not decline next year, with a maximum subsidy of 9000 euros for single cars.
In the U.S. market, the bill proposed by the Biden government has passed the house of Representatives, aiming to increase the maximum subsidy for bicycles from $7500 to $12500, and there is no limit on the number of 200000 vehicles for car enterprises.
The Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car market process is faster, and the single car subsidy has been significantly lower than that in the United States, Germany and so on.
Tesla: qualitative change in profitability in 2021
Tesla is moving faster and faster in the direction of new energy vehicles, both in terms of delivery and profitability. In the third quarter, Tesla delivered 240000 vehicles worldwide, an increase of 73%. 628000 vehicles were delivered this year, an increase of 97%.
The scale effect is improved and the cost is reduced. After deducting the carbon score income, although the average selling price of a single vehicle is reduced, the gross profit margin of the whole vehicle business has increased to 28%.
Tesla has grown from a “carbon man” to a truly profitable enterprise. In the third quarter, Tesla‘s non GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company was US $2.09 billion, and its carbon score revenue was US $280 million, accounting for only ~ 14%
Traditional automobile enterprises: Volkswagen makes efforts, and Toyota has made rapid transformation this year
In the traditional automobile market, Volkswagen and Toyota dominate the world. At present, Volkswagen Group is trying its best to catch up with Tesla. In the third quarter, Volkswagen Group’s global Bev sales volume was 122000, an increase of 108%.
Volkswagen will double in ten years and “double every other year” in the medium term. From 2021 to 2025, the proportion of BEV in Volkswagen’s global sales will increase from ~ 5% to 20%. And it will account for ~ 50% in 2030, corresponding to the sales volume of ~ 5 million BEVS.
Toyota’s rapid transformation this year. In April this year, Toyota raised the sales target of BEV in 2030 to 2 million vehicles. On December 14 this year, the target value was further increased to 3.5 million vehicles. (Toyota’s Bev sales volume in 2021 is ~ 15000, an increase of ~ 230 times, with an annualized compound increase of ~ 83%)
Core: new energy vehicles have become profit artifact
In the Chinese market, the development of new car making forces has been very successful. In November, Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal achieved monthly sales of more than 10000. And in the third quarter of this year, the ideal non GAAP parent net profit was 340 million yuan, much higher than expected.
From the sales unit price, weixiaoli has exceeded 200000, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) less than 100000; Judging from the gross profit of bicycles, weixiaoli is more than 20000 yuan, and the Great Wall is only more than 10000 yuan.
Developing new energy vehicles is already a very good business model. New forces of car making: enhance the scale effect. Traditional auto enterprises: open the profit ceiling.
In 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 10 million
From the business performance of Tesla and Wei Xiaoli, a new force in China, we believe that the business model of new energy vehicles has been basically opened up. The development of new energy vehicles is the general trend.
With the further support of the government and the increasing willingness of consumers to accept, the development of new energy vehicles has come naturally. In the Norwegian market, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased from 1% to 86% this year in a decade.
The global sales volume of new energy vehicles this year is expected to be ~ 6.6 million. Looking forward to 2022, the Chinese and European markets will continue to advance, and the U.S. market will be large. Next year, the global sales of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 10 million, with a growth rate of 54%. According to the research feedback of lithium battery industry chain, the global sales growth of new energy vehicles is expected to reach a higher value next year.
Midstream: lithium battery materials in short supply
In 2020, the growth rate of global new energy vehicle sales was ~ 43%. This year, the global market broke out, and the growth rate is expected to be 110% this year. This year, the growth rate of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations, and the superimposed energy storage began to increase, which directly led to the shortage of lithium battery materials.
The most obvious label of lithium battery materials this year: price rise. The price rise is partly due to the price rise of upstream resource products, including lithium and cobalt, and partly due to the relationship between supply and demand. The prices of main lithium battery materials are rising, including positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte (hexafluoride + solvent), as well as auxiliary materials PVDF and copper foil.
Lithium battery material enterprises fully enjoy the great development of the industry
Benefiting from the expansion of the industry and tight supply, lithium battery materials made excellent profit this year. We selected 16 companies with relatively pure business in lithium battery materials as representatives of various subdivided fields.
Among the four main materials, the electrolyte sector has the highest profit growth rate. In the first three quarters of this year, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 352% year-on-year. The profit growth of positive electrode, negative electrode and diaphragm increased nearly twice year-on-year. The high profit growth of auxiliary materials is mainly due to the low base last year.
In order to seize market share, lithium battery materials have accelerated the expansion of production this year.
Investment suggestion: focus on the profit reversal of power battery enterprises
Due to the tight supply of lithium battery materials, among the main power battery enterprises, except Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , the gross profit margin of other enterprises has declined this year.
Compared with lithium battery materials, lithium battery is a system product with higher technical threshold. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) R & D investment far exceeds that of lithium battery material enterprises. In addition, from the perspective of the production expansion cycle of lithium battery materials, the production expansion generally takes about 1 year.
The supply of lithium battery materials is expected to improve in 2022. It is suggested to focus on the direction of power batteries, mainly including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , etc.
Investment suggestion: battery materials focus on ternary high nickel and diaphragm
For battery material, it is recommended to pay attention to ternary high nickel and diaphragm.
At present, the development direction of lithium battery technology in China deviates from the development of overseas market. The market share of lithium iron phosphate battery in China has exceeded Sanyuan, while Sanyuan is developing towards higher nickel in overseas markets, including ni90, NCMA, etc. Compared with lithium iron phosphate, high nickel ternary has a higher technical threshold. In addition, Tesla 4680 battery will start mass production next year, which will further accelerate the ternary application of high nickel. Ternary high nickel direction, it is recommended to pay attention to: Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) , etc.
In terms of diaphragm, due to the tight supply of equipment, the diaphragm market is expected to remain tight next year. Diaphragm link, it is recommended to pay attention to: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , etc.
Cutting edge technology, recommended attention: pet copper foil, lithium iron manganese phosphate and sodium ion battery.
