1.1 staple grain planting: appropriate high price is very important to stabilize planting willingness
According to the main data bulletin of the third national land survey in August this year, by the end of 2019, the national cultivated land was 1.9179 billion mu, a decrease of 113 million mu compared with the second land survey. In his speech at the central economic work conference in 2021, state leaders mentioned the current phenomenon, "the area of cultivated land is still decreasing. In the past, grain was transferred from the south to the north, and now grain is transferred from the north to the south. In some places, a large number of good fields do not grow grain, but either build farms or plant flowers, fruits and trees. What about grain?" "Growing grain does not make money, stacking wasteland to work in the city" has become the consensus and common goal of the current rural young and middle-aged labor force.
According to the GM penetration rate, we expect that the potential yield increase brought by GM will not bring supplement on the supply side before 2023. The slow depopulation of pig stocks provides stable demand support for the grain market, and the wheat price has exceeded the 10-year high, reconstructing the range pattern of China's grain price. The price increase of China's staple grain obviously lags behind that of chemical fertilizer and other materials. Increasing subsidies will alleviate the rising pressure of means of production to a certain extent, but prices are still the best means to solve the shortage of supply. Since 2021q4, many food enterprises have raised prices one after another, and their tolerance to raw material prices is improving.
From 2020 to 2021, the recovery of aquaculture industry will drive a significant increase in feed demand. After the temporary storage of corn is exhausted in 2020, the auction of temporary storage of wheat and rice is high, which is also swallowing the reserve thickness of wheat and rice.
There is a large cognitive bias in the market on grain prices. Under the policy objectives of the overall upward trend of production materials and ensuring grain supply, it is very important to accept appropriate high grain prices for stabilizing planting willingness.
