1、 Event overview
Since December, the capacity of silicon material in the upstream of the supply side has been released (the silicon branch predicts that the monthly output of Tongwei and GCL will increase by more than 2000 tons in December, and the overall output of the industry will increase by about 8%), while the price of downstream components is high (as of December 22, the component price is still above 1.9 yuan / W), the demand is weak + the construction of component plants is low, and the silicon material price has fallen to about 230 yuan / kg.
2、 Analysis and judgment
Silicon material prices fell, optimistic about the marginal improvement in demand in January
Looking to January: on the one hand, some projects not fully connected to the grid in December will be postponed to January, which will form a certain support for the demand. On the other hand, with the continuous climbing of the upstream Tongwei 40000 tons + GCL 20000 tons capacity, the silicon price is expected to continue to decline. According to the industry tracking data, the month on month growth rate of component production in January was 10-20%, and the demand continued to improve.
After the Spring Festival, the price adjustment is in place + rework workers are in place, and the terminal demand is expected to increase rapidly
We believe that the installed capacity of the power station is willing to increase. We need to see: a. the industry price is adjusted in place, corresponding to the silicon material price of 200 yuan / kg, the component price of 1.8 yuan / W, and the corresponding yield of the terminal power station is more than 6%; b. Objective conditions for installation and commencement (such as workers in place) are available.
It is expected that after about one month's supply chain price adjustment + silicon inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival to further promote the price downward. After the Spring Festival, it is expected to see a rapid rise in installed demand, driving the arrival of high-profile fundamentals.
3、 Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the high growth of industry demand in 22 years and continue to recommend the photovoltaic sector
The production capacity of upstream raw materials is released, and the downward price of the supply chain drives the demand. The installed photovoltaic demand in 22 years is expected to be more than 220gw, with a growth rate of 40-50%. We remain optimistic about the industry and remain firmly optimistic about the photovoltaic sector.
Continue to recommend [component integration] Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , as well as [inverter links] Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) pulled by photovoltaic + energy storage high landscape in 2022. It is recommended to pay attention to Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , recommend Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) of [thermal field link], and pay attention to Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) , Anhui Truchum Advanced Materials And Technology Co.Ltd(002171) , etc.
4、 Risk tips:
The supply and release of upstream silicon material is less than expected, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
