The macro cycle of chemical industry is short-term or differentiated: the current cycle has been started in 20h2 and is at a high level at this stage. Since 21h2, the global real estate boom in the terminal market has cooled down, the automobile chain has weakened, the new energy vehicles stand out, and the social zero growth has been significantly differentiated. The unconventional monetary + fiscal policies in the United States and Europe have made the consumer recovery stronger, while China focuses on stabilizing production and the consumer recovery is weak. From the perspective of volume and price, the growth rate of global chemical output in 2021 was high before and low after, corresponding to the repair of the imbalance between supply and demand since 20h2. China’s “export substitution” played an obvious role in the first half of the year. Since Q3, the supply side has been affected by the dual carbon expectation and energy consumption dual control policy, superimposed with extreme weather disturbances and rising kerosene prices, and the price boom of chemical products has increased in an all-round way, Until November, with the decline of coal prices, the boom began to differentiate; From the perspective of inventory cycle, the coexistence of stock accumulation and price rise in 21q2 is beginning to show an inflection point. In the short term, the active stock replenishment stage may go through the dynamic game between supply and demand sides.
Grasp the new opportunity of clarifying the carbon neutralization policy: according to Xinhuanetco.Ltd(603888) , the recent central economic work conference pointed out that the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control, and create conditions to realize the transformation from “double control” of energy consumption to “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible. On the one hand, the scientific assessment of dual control of energy consumption has alleviated the expectation of “no rice in the pot” of the new increment of chemical industry, but it should be noted that at the moment when the new infrastructure of “new energy” has not been fully formed, the dual control restriction of energy consumption still exists, “energy consumption right” = “development right”, and the leading position of chemical industry with better energy efficiency will be strengthened for a long time; On the other hand, the shift to dual control of total carbon emission and intensity means that “emission right” = “development right”. In the short and medium term, chemical enterprises that can optimize manufacturing processes (reduce process emissions) and actively upgrade products (higher added value per unit emission intensity) have more advantages; In the long run, with the improvement of carbon trading system and the gradual rise of social carbon cost, synthetic biology technology will have more significant comparative advantages due to the change of production mode, less energy consumption and process emissions.
Core recommendations:
Core assets: recommend energy efficiency benchmarks Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) based on advantageous production capacity and entering new materials.
Private refining: from extensive expansion to high-quality development. Relying on the large chemical platform, private refining has proved its strong profitability and stability. With the upgrading and reform of the chemical industry and the gradual promotion of the double carbon policy, private refining and chemical enterprises actively layout new materials downstream while taking into account the development of traditional business, so as to realize the two-way progress of scale and quality. Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , and satellite chemistry, a leading chemical industry with the development of light hydrocarbon cracking, are recommended. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading coal chemical industry with strong cost advantage: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Synthetic biology: as the key puzzle of decarbonization in the future chemical industry, it is expected to open up a new blue ocean of rapid growth. It is recommended Anhui Huaheng Biotechnology Co.Ltd(688639) , Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) .
In addition to the boom track, we focus on looking for strong competitors with core competitiveness and strong growth α Subject matter, recommended Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Gon Technology Co.Ltd(002768) . At the same time, we pay attention to high-quality targets that are damaged by external forces, but individual stocks have a large safety margin and strong performance elasticity. We recommend to pay attention to: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) .
Risk tip: the macroeconomic performance is lower than expected, the periodic change of chemical production capacity is higher than expected, the oil price fluctuates sharply, and the safety and environmental protection risk of chemical industry
