Industry perspective
Huawei's entry into the core three electricity system of electric vehicles, and the electrification of vehicles enabled by digital technology is the general trend of the industry. As an important part of electrification on the power side, automobile electrification needs to rely on digital technology to reasonably plan the whole life cycle of electric vehicles and realize the efficient use of electric energy. ICT technology and automobile industry are deeply integrated. High voltage integration and digitization are two important directions of electric vehicles. Huawei intelligent electric aims at the three electricity system, the core incremental component of new energy vehicles, and enters the game in Huawei inside mode to realize the whole scene layout of "device system whole vehicle". We estimate that the global three electricity market is expected to reach US $273.4 billion by 2025 and US $755.6 billion by 2030. The CAGR of battery, motor and electric control in the past ten years are 28%, 27% and 26% respectively.
Matthew effect is obvious in the power battery market, and the cloud of BMS system is a new entry point in the market. The cost and performance in the field of power battery are the key. At present, the market share is concentrated in the leading enterprises, and the market scale is expected to reach 82.3 billion US dollars in 2030. BMS technology is integrated into battery charging, safety testing and other links to improve battery performance and mileage. In 2027, the market scale will reach US $13.4 billion, and the Chinese market is expected to be US $5.8 billion, accounting for more than 40%. In the future, BMS is expected to reduce harness through wireless communication, reduce vehicle manufacturing cost and realize detection and analysis based on cloud platform. Relying on ICT technology advantages, Huawei has built a BMS cloud platform with "end + cloud + AI" collaboration to improve prediction accuracy. Chinese power battery enterprises are in a leading position and the market pattern is stable. In the future, we will pay attention to the changes in the market pattern brought by the development trend of new battery technology.
Under the trend of electric drive system integration, the industrial value chain is gradually transferred to vehicle manufacturers, the high power density forces the upgrading of thermal management system, and local thermal management enterprises usher in the opportunity of localization. Through the integrated design of motor, electric control and deceleration architecture, the electric drive multi in one system has significant advantages in space, weight and energy consumption, and the market penetration has increased rapidly, accounting for more than 40%. Relying on all-round self-research and end-to-end vertical integration mode, Huawei has launched a multi-in-one electric drive system with leading performance indicators in the industry. It is difficult for vehicle manufacturers and third-party motor enterprises to cooperate in development. In the future, the focus of the multi in one electric drive market will shift to vehicle manufacturers represented by Byd Company Limited(002594) and Tesla. With the high coupling of core components, the heat dissipation technology has changed from traditional water cooling to double-sided water cooling and oil cooling. It is estimated that the heat management market scale of new energy vehicles will reach 99 billion yuan in 2025. Overseas enterprises have deep customer resources and occupy a dominant position in the market. In the new round of technology iteration, the decline of Chinese subsidies has led to an increase in the demand for low-cost parts by car enterprises, and Chinese manufacturers are expected to overtake in curves.
The high-voltage trend catalyzes the acceleration of silicon carbide technology, and the localization and substitution of power devices ushers in an opportunity. Huawei has a deep layout in the fields of core devices such as IGBT, MCU and SiC through self research + cooperation + investment. The motor controller is the core component of the electric drive assembly, and its value accounts for 40% of the assembly, of which the main component IGBT accounts for 44%. It is estimated that the market scale of vehicle IGBT in China will reach 21 billion yuan in 2025. Due to the high technical threshold, Chinese manufacturers started late, and the market was monopolized by foreign leaders. Chinese Byd Company Limited(002594) semiconductor, Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) and CRRC era actively expanded their production, and the market share continued to increase. The trend of high voltage and high power in the three electricity system of new energy vehicles opens up the application space of silicon carbide power devices, and the market space is expected to reach US $1.778 billion in 2025. Among them, substrate and epitaxy are the core components, and the total cost accounts for more than 70%. There are still gaps in all links of the industrial chain of Chinese manufacturers, mainly processing and design of imported SiC substrates. At present, Chinese manufacturers represented by Shandong Tianyue and tiankeheda are narrowing the product gap with overseas leading enterprises. While accelerating the design and production of SiC devices, they are extending to the upstream of lining and extension. The era of localization has begun.
Investment advice
Huawei's intelligent electric layout reflects the evolution direction of the automotive three electricity industry under the background of digitization and dual carbon. It is suggested to focus on leading companies with technical barriers and industrial chain control capabilities, such as Huawei digital energy, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Shandong Tianyue, tiankeheda, etc.
Risk statement
The progress of electrification is less than expected; Localization progress is less than expected; The cost of key devices is reduced slowly.
