The improvement of electric vehicle product power leads to the upgrading of automobile consumption. The global sales volume is expected to be 9.68 million in 2022: the demand in 2021 is driven by product power. Globally, we expect that the global production and sales of about 9.68 million new energy vehicles will be realized in 2022. Among them, China’s 5.54 million vehicles are expected to maintain strong growth in consumption driven by product power; The assessment of carbon emissions in Europe is relaxed, and the growth rate is expected to slow down, realizing the production and sales of more than 2.64 million vehicles; Driven by the double resonance of emission assessment and vehicle models, the U.S. market is expected to achieve sales of more than 1.32 million vehicles.
Discussion on demand: (1) in the whole vehicle link, the market is worried that the decline in subsidies / the rise in battery prices will lead to the rise in the price of electric vehicles and affect the terminal demand. We believe that the market share may be more important for the main engine plant at present. If we consider the long-term benefits brought by the brand market share, the short-term small profits can be accepted in the growth period. In addition, with the “flowers bloom” of new energy vehicle brands, the demand in 2022 is still optimistic. (2) Battery link: the “quantity” of battery growth will make up for the loss of “profit”. In addition, the overall planning ability of the industrial chain will also create additional profits for the enterprise. These are the sources of growth and excess returns. (3) For battery materials, the continuous demand in the downstream continues to improve. For battery enterprises, market share and good cooperation with host manufacturers may be more important. Therefore, the demand for materials will not decrease. Demand determines the direction of price, and supply determines the price elasticity. The release of supply at the material end next year will weaken the price elasticity of materials, but with the support of demand, There will be no rapid downward movement of the price center. For material enterprises, the growth brought by the release of volume will stabilize the periodicity brought by price fluctuations. We are still optimistic about the overall profit of the material end in 2022.
Focus on “growth” and “shortage”: we expect the global sales of new energy vehicles to switch from “ultra-high speed” growth to “high speed” growth in 2022. However, due to the larger base in 2021 compared with 2020 and the rapid volume of energy storage market, two wheeled vehicle market and electric tool market, we are still optimistic about the global demand for lithium-ion batteries in 2022. However, accordingly, we believe that the investment story will return to “growth”. With the expansion of players in the industrial chain and the influx of cross-border funds from other industries, some materials will show more commodity attributes and weaken the technology premium brought by manufacturing barriers. In this process, we emphasize “growth” and “cost control”. In addition, the “shortage” of some links is also an investment keyword.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials
