Household sector: focus on profit and valuation repair, leading stocks through the cycle. Looking forward to 2022, the positive contribution of completion is expected to run through the whole year. However, affected by the decline of new construction data, the marginal contribution is expected to weaken. At present, the bottom of the real estate policy has been realized, or the additional policy catalysis is welcome. Follow three main investment lines: 1) the domestic retail business line prefers the software sector with optimized pattern and stable demand, and is optimistic about the software leader with continuous consolidation of C-end core competitiveness and cycle crossing ability for a long time. Recommendation of core target: [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ], it is suggested to pay attention to: [Minhua holdings]. 2) The customization sector focuses on the valuation and repair opportunities catalyzed by policies, and selects leading enterprises with competitive barriers in category expansion, supply chain management and channel extension. Recommendation of core target: [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ]. 3) Under the influence of shipping, exchange rate and raw material prices, the export chain’s profit is under pressure in the short term, the external pressure factors are alleviated, the export chain’s profit is expected to repair and realize the bottom reversal, and the medium and long-term growth logic of the export chain’s leading enterprises with track growth and overseas operation advantages remains unchanged. Recommended core target: [ Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp(300729) ], recommended attention: [ Keeson Technology Corporation Limited(603610) ] [ Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) ].
Paper packaging: the cycle falls, and the boom track is preferred. At present, the paper industry has entered the passive inventory stage with limited demand side support. Next year, it will enter the centralized release period of production capacity, and the leading paper enterprises will lead the expansion of production capacity. In the long run, under the background of the promotion of double carbon policy and the clearing of foreign waste imports, the logic of industry concentration improvement will be deduced for a long time. Under the catalysis of environmental protection policies such as consumption upgrading, domestic substitution and plastic restriction order, the demand for medium and high-end special paper for specific purposes is high, and the profit model is better than that of bulk paper. With the decline of papermaking cycle and the stabilization of raw material prices, we believe that the leading packaging and printing companies have also ushered in a profit inflection point. Recommendation of core target: [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ] [ Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) ] [ Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) ].
Required consumption: the rise of C-end domestic products, focusing on demand repair and individual stock growth. In 2021, mass consumption is weak as a whole, the transmission of upstream cost pressure is blocked, and corporate profits are under pressure. Looking forward to next year, the marginal impact of the epidemic on consumption is weakened. Since November, the ppi-cpi scissors gap has narrowed, and the cost pressure has slowed down. Under the background of clearing the midstream pattern and repairing the downstream demand, the sector profit is expected to be repaired. At present, leading stocks are at a low valuation, and they are optimistic about the repair of plate valuation and the growth of C-end leaders for a long time. Recommendation of core subject matter: [ Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) ] [ Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) ].
New type tobacco: the trend has become and has entered a new stage of benign development. Overseas: the transformation strategy of international tobacco giants to “new tobacco” is firm. Driven by the giants, the global new tobacco market has penetrated rapidly, and the new tobacco trend has become a trend. China: 1) atomization: the e-cigarette regulatory policy is intensively released, and the stricter regulation is expected to promote the benign development of the industry. Under the implementation of the policy, the margin of uncertainty is weakened, and the leading enterprises with product, technology and channel barriers benefit. 2) HNB: with the implementation of e-cigarette policy, the sector is expected to usher in a new round of policy catalysis, and the opening of HNB tobacco market is also expected to speed up. It is suggested to actively pay attention to the industrial chain opportunities led by China tobacco. It is suggested to pay attention to: [Huabao international] [ Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) ] [smore international].
It is suggested to pay attention to: Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) , Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) , Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) , Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) , Huabao international, Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) , Smallworld international
Risk tips: risk of sharp rise in raw material prices, macroeconomic fluctuation, change of industrial policies, and deviation between measurement and reality
