Shenzhen Topband Co.Ltd(002139) (002139)
Event description
On December 29, the company announced that Nantong Tuobang Youneng Technology Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Nantong, has completed the industrial and commercial registration and obtained the registration document on December 29, 2021. The subsidiary company is a newly established company in Nantong through the wholly-owned subsidiary Shenzhen Topbond Lithium Battery Co., Ltd. to invest in the construction of lithium battery project and purchase the original Hanhua new energy plant with completed infrastructure (for the construction of square aluminum shell cell, soft pack cell, large cylindrical cell and battery pack production line).
Business analysis
The third growth curve opens up the incremental space. The company has established a wholly-owned subsidiary in Nantong, which is mainly used for the lithium battery production expansion project. According to the company's plan, the project is implemented in three phases, with a total investment of 1.6 billion yuan in the first phase to produce 2gwh cells and 1GWh battery packs; The total investment in phase II is 1.7 billion yuan, adding 2gwh cells and 1.5gwh battery packs; The total investment of phase III is 1.7 billion yuan, and 2gwh cells and 1.5gwh battery packs are added; The first phase is put into operation in two stages. The first phase is put into operation with 1.3gwh of power cells, with a total investment of 750 million yuan, including 280 million yuan of equipment investment; In the second stage, 0.7gwh of cell and 1GWh of pack battery pack are added. From the current business distribution of the company, the revenue of lithium battery has reached 11.72% (21h1 data), with a year-on-year increase of 54% and a compound growth rate of 31% in the past five years. It can be seen that the business of lithium battery has developed rapidly. This expansion is expected to promote the lithium battery business to become the third growth momentum of the company after household appliances and electric tools, and the incremental space is expected to be opened.
Short term profits are under pressure, and emerging demand ensures that the high-speed growth trend remains unchanged. The company is an intelligent controller Longyou enterprise. Its business is mainly divided into four fields: household appliances, electric tools, lithium batteries and industry. Among them, household appliances benefit from the trend of small household appliances and intelligent household appliances, electric tools benefit from the increasing market share of mainland manufacturers under the epidemic, and lithium battery business benefits from the energy storage economic trend brought by communication energy storage lead-acid substitution and peak valley power difference. Therefore, we believe that although the company's gross profit margin was under short-term pressure due to the impact of upstream raw materials in the third quarter, with the marginal easing of the price rise trend of raw materials, the profit repair effect will gradually appear, and the trend of high-speed growth will remain unchanged under the background of intelligent electrical appliances and energy storage penetration for a long time.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the company's overall revenue in 21-23 years will be 7.394 billion yuan, 9.959 billion yuan and 13.578 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 712 million yuan, 927 million yuan and 1.721 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.575 million yuan, 0.748 million yuan and 1.052 million yuan respectively. We are still firmly optimistic about the medium and long-term growth of the company as the leader of intelligent controller and reiterate the "buy" rating.
Risk statement
Downside risk of gross profit margin, less than expected business synergy, RMB exchange loss
