Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co.Ltd(002930) (002930)
Investment logic
Private petrochemical storage leading enterprise. Comprehensive warehousing service is the core business of the company, mainly including refined oil and bulk chemicals (such as alcohols and benzene), with a revenue contribution of more than 96%. Taking the growth path of continuous M & A, the company has realized the rapid expansion of the scale of core assets, and has formed an all-round layout in the Great Bay area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, the Yangtze River Delta and the southeast coast. It is the largest petrochemical storage enterprise in the industry.
Supply and demand do not match, and core resources build high industry barriers. The supervision of petrochemical storage industry is tightened, the management of multi departments of shoreline resources is crossed, it is difficult to obtain Petrochemical Wharf resources, the safety management of hazardous chemicals, the approval of business qualification and other policies have raised the business threshold of the industry, the storage demand is strong, and the rent has maintained a compound annual increase of 3% – 5%.
The advantages of location layout are obvious, and the core asset construction industry is leading. The company’s reservoir area is distributed in East China, southeast coastal areas of Fujian and South China. It is the main petrochemical consumption area and manufacturing enterprise intensive area in China. The company’s holding subsidiaries and joint-stock companies currently operate and are under construction 776 storage tanks with a total tank capacity of 3.4453 million cubic meters, chemical warehouses with a total warehouse capacity of 37700 square meters and 11 Petrochemical terminals.
M & a development promotes the rapid expansion of scale and highlights the advantages of synergy. The petrochemical logistics industry shows the trend of centralization, and the M & a development is the best development path. The company actively acquired and expanded its scale advantages. The acquisition of Fujian port in December 2018 can fill the gap in the layout of the southeast coast and connect the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River delta reservoir areas of the company; In December 2019, Zhongshan Jiaxin was acquired to consolidate the Pearl River delta reservoir area; In May 2020, the company acquired Changzhou China Resources, Changshu China Resources and Changjiang petrochemical, which effectively linked with the original Yangtze River delta reservoir area; In October 2021, it announced the tender offer to acquire Longxiang group, which is expected to be consolidated in the first half of 2022.
Chemical warehouse and storage will enter a new track, and value-added services will create a comprehensive platform for petrochemical logistics services. The second main business of the company is chemical warehouse storage business. Most of the chemical warehouses are class a warehouses, which can meet the storage needs of most petrochemical products. Value added services improve customer stickiness. In 2020, the gross profit margin will reach 95.47%. Asset light business will continue to drain, strengthen resource integration, open up the upstream and downstream of the supply chain and extend the service chain, which is expected to realize the incubation of smart logistics platform.
Investment advice
Considering the M & A projects, it is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 0.65, RMB 0.90 and RMB 1.18 respectively. We believe that the company’s geographical layout is in areas with intensive consumption of petrochemical products, the high quality of core assets continues to improve the operation efficiency, the M & A projects promote the growth of scale, the chemical warehouse is cut into a new track, and the company’s profitability is further strengthened. Give the company 35 times PE valuation, corresponding to the target price of 31.5 yuan in 2022, and give a “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk statement
The performance of new projects does not meet expectations; Safe operation risk; Stock pledge risk; Goodwill impairment risk.
