Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) (688518)
Core view: Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) is a supplier of laser welding equipment and complete solutions, covering power battery, 3C, communication and hardware downstream. 2013-2020 revenue / net profit CAGR 34% / 31%, 2020 revenue / net profit 878 / 67 million yuan, of which the revenue in the field of power battery accounts for more than 70%. Power battery laser welding has high technical barriers. The company has self-developed laser capability, advanced processes such as “multi wavelength composite welding and blue laser welding”, deep binding Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , and in-depth cooperation with other first-line and second-line battery factories. It is estimated that the market share in China is nearly 50%. Benefiting from the accelerated expansion of power battery industry, the company’s revenue is expected to grow at a high speed.
The turning point of the company’s profitability has reached, and the net profit margin from 2022 to 2023 is expected to repair rapidly. ① The impact of cost front effect is weakened. The period from receiving the order to acceptance of the complete set of laser welding project is about one year. A large amount of R & D and management expenses need to be amortized in the early stage of the project, which determines that the current cost rate is very high. In 2020, the bidding of equipment affected by the epidemic was delayed, and in Q3 in 2020, the bidding was successively carried out. The newly signed orders in H1 in 2021 were 1.921 billion yuan (including tax), an increase of 27% over the orders in the whole year of 21 (85% of which came from the power battery industry). With the realization of income, the expense rate is expected to decline rapidly. ② Scale effect improvement and product standardization reduce cost rate. Power battery laser welding has strong customization attribute, short technological innovation cycle, patent protection and scheme iteration, resulting in low reuse rate of R & D and production. With the increase of bidding project volume of head battery factory, the scale effect is reflected. At the same time, the company began to establish a standardized system to improve the reuse rate of R & D and production assembly, which is expected to further reduce the cost rate.
4680 scheme promotes the value of welding links, and the company is expected to fully benefit. In September 2020, Tesla released 4680 cylindrical battery, which increased energy by 5 times and power by 6 times compared with 21700. At the same time, the cost was reduced by 14% and the endurance mileage was increased by 16%. It is expected to quickly seize the market share in the future. Mainstream battery manufacturers have followed up the layout. The 4680 battery adopts the full pole lug design, which turns the positive and negative current collectors into pole lugs. Compared with the traditional battery single pole lug design, the welding area is larger, which greatly increases the difficulty of welding and the demand for welding equipment. Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) the prototype design of the cylindrical battery assembly line has been completed to match the automatic assembly production of 4680 battery. At present, it is in the prototype assembly and commissioning. In the future, it will fully benefit from the increase in the demand for welding equipment brought by the increase of 4680 battery penetration.
Investment suggestion: we expect that the revenue growth rate of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 50.8%, 120.4% and 47.1% respectively, and the net profit growth rate will be 50.0%, 219.8% and 83.8% respectively, with outstanding growth; The investment rating of Buy-A is given, and the six-month target price is 59.24 yuan, corresponding to the dynamic P / E ratio of 30x in 2023.
Risk tip: the expansion of power battery production is lower than expected, the competition pattern worsens, and the promotion of standardization is lower than expected;
