Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) (600057)
Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) : a leader in the innovation and exploration of commodity supply chain business model. The company is a subsidiary of Xiangyu Group and a local state-owned enterprise controlled by Xiamen SASAC. It is mainly engaged in bulk supply chain services including Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , metal minerals, energy and chemical industry. From 2021q1 to Q3, the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 77% year-on-year, showing an accelerated high growth trend.
Industry track: the commodity supply chain has broad market space and great potential to improve market concentration. At present, the total space of China's bulk commodity market can reach the scale level of 20-30 trillion yuan, with broad space. However, compared with overseas developed countries, China's bulk supply chain market is still in the early stage of development, with Cr4 only at the level of 4% - 5%, and the market concentration has great room to improve. We believe that as a front-line head company of China's bulk supply chain, the company is facing the development opportunity of increasing market share and has great potential.
Business model: deeply cultivate the bulk commodity business for many years, extend the service boundary and increase the profitability of the supply chain. The company's three main business segments Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , metal minerals and energy and chemical industry have turned to the supply chain company service mode of "focusing on service income, with both financial income and transaction income". The profit source has changed from mainly collecting commodity trade price difference to mainly collecting service fees for all links of supply chain services, and the cycle attribute has gradually weakened.
Logistics Assets: build a logistics network with xiangdao logistics as the core, and improve the service capacity through the linkage of materials and trade. The company focuses on the layout of its own railway resources, and constructs a logistics and transportation network system connected in series with public and railway hot metal warehouses, which has formed a good material and trade linkage effect for bulk supply chain business. We believe that at present, the company's logistics business has gradually shown a stable profitability. In the future, with the further improvement of the construction of xiangdao logistics, the realization of scale effect and large-scale marginal contribution, the profitability of logistics business still has the potential to improve.
Profit forecast and valuation analysis: it is predicted that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.94, 1.24 and 1.64 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 8.51, 6.43 and 4.87 times, giving a "recommended" rating.
