Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals Inc(688319) (688319)
Event: the company issued an announcement and received the summary report of phase II clinical trial of recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine (E. coli).
The phase II data of Staphylococcus aureus vaccine are excellent, which further enhances the certainty of success. According to the announcement data, the recombinant Staphylococcus aureus vaccine (E. coli) has good safety in the target population of Orthopaedic Surgery aged 18-70 in China. The specific antibody level of each immunization program group reached the peak 10-14 days after the first immunization, and the immunogenicity was good. The specific antibody level was still at a plateau relative to the baseline 42 days after the first immunization, and there was still a high level 180 days after the first immunization. It is expected that the phase III clinical of Staphylococcus aureus vaccine will be completed in 2024 and is expected to be listed in 2025, with a market scale of 10 billion. Staphylococcus aureus vaccine, as a global innovative variety, is expected to fill the world gap. It is estimated that the number of closed fracture surgeries in China will be about 1.34 million in 2030, of which 80% of the infected people will be vaccinated. According to the price of 3 doses per person, a total of 3000 yuan, the Staphylococcus aureus vaccine can correspond to the sales scale of 960 million, driving the rapid and large-scale performance of the company.
The three channels of tetanus vaccine have a rapid volume and a good competition pattern. In terms of traditional vaccines, the outpatient channels for trauma and dog injury of tetanus vaccine benefited from the introduction of the code for the treatment of non neonatal tetanus (2019 Edition), which widened its scope of use. The company's products are positioned in the adult market with a good competition pattern. In 2020, the market share of batch issuance is 88%, and the first mover advantage is obvious. The company gradually realizes the rapid and large-scale production of products by increasing market promotion investment, educating terminal institutions and improving tetanus vaccination awareness. We expect that in 2030, the rabies vaccine channel, traditional channel and blood product enterprise channel will contribute a total revenue of 1.76 billion yuan to the company, accounting for 60% of the whole market scale.
R & D strategy of "tradition + innovation" two wheel drive products. The company adopts the product development strategy of "traditional vaccine upgrading + innovative vaccine development", and the multi product R & D pipeline is advancing in an orderly manner. For traditional vaccine products, the production and registration of key varieties of AC Hib triple vaccine products will be completed in 2022, and it is expected to be put on the market in 2023. In the field of innovative vaccines, the key species group A Streptococcus vaccine also has the global leading attribute. Group A Streptococcus vaccine will also become the first clinical variety to be declared in China, strengthening the company's position in the field of superbacterial vaccine.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.32 yuan, 0.65 yuan and 1.03 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 116, 57 and 36 times respectively. Tetanus vaccine, the company's core variety, continued to grow rapidly, driving the company's rapid growth; Staphylococcus aureus vaccine, a heavy product under development, has been successfully promoted in clinical practice, has the attribute of global originality, is expected to achieve a breakthrough in the global blank, become a global heavy variety and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales of existing products are lower than expected, and there is a risk of failure in the R & D of Staphylococcus aureus vaccine. twenty-six thousand and sixty
