Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) (300438)
After 20 years of deep cultivation of lithium battery, capacity expansion, structural optimization and profit improvement. Founded in 2001, the company's founder has accumulated profound experience in the battery field, absorbed elite and expanded the strength of the core management team, and conducted two long-term equity incentive plans to deeply bind the company's value growth with the interests of employees. The company's lithium-ion battery business covers cylindrical, square and soft bags in an all-round way. By the end of 2021, the company's total capacity is expected to reach 16.3gwh, including power battery 3.6gwh and energy storage battery 5.6gwh. Energy storage has become the company's main business direction in the future. At the same time, it is planned that the long-term capacity of Changzhou and Liuzhou plants will reach 11gwh and 20gwh. In addition, the ppi-cpi scissors gap reached a historical high of 12% in October. We believe that in the process of transmitting the subsequent cost rise to the downstream, the profitability of the battery link is expected to improve and the performance inflection point will appear.
Global electrochemical energy storage from 0 to 1, creating a new 100 GWH track. The transformation of power structure with new energy as the main body has given birth to the electrochemical energy storage market. In 2020, the global electrochemical energy storage will increase by 10.7gwh. It is estimated that by 2025, the new installed capacity will reach 221.5gwh and CAGR will reach 53.3%. According to different application scenarios, electrochemical energy storage is usually divided into two markets: front of meter (power generation side and power grid side) and back of meter (industrial and commercial, home storage and portable energy storage). From the characteristics, the front of meter market has a large space, and the participation of cell enterprises is expected to rapidly increase the scale. However, the TOC attribute of back of meter market, and the profit margin of cell is higher than that of general power battery.
The strategy focuses on the energy storage market, with high income growth and prominent core advantages. The company has arranged energy storage business since 15 years, covering a variety of application scenarios such as overseas home storage, China's power generation side and communication base stations. In the first three quarters of 21 years, the company's energy storage business revenue reached 1.054 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 145%, accounting for 27%. In the next 10 years, the energy storage market will expand rapidly β Next, we think the company α It is expected to help achieve faster growth: 1) strategically focus on energy storage business, concentrate capital to expand energy storage capacity, give priority to production scheduling and ensure shipment; 2) Joint venture with customers to build plants, bind downstream, constantly expand downstream application scenarios and penetrate the energy storage market in an all-round way; 3) With the help of perfect lithium battery technology and product matrix, connect all-round energy storage needs, increase R & D for downstream fields such as ground power station, home storage and communication, and provide cost-effective customized products.
Financial forecast and investment suggestions
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years will be RMB 235 / 538 / 856 million, and the earnings per share will be RMB 0.54/1.24/1.97. With reference to the comparable company, it will give a 22-year 49 times PE, a "buy" rating, and a target price of RMB 60.76.
Risk statement
Customer sales, market development and energy storage business are not as expected; Risk of material price fluctuation and intensified competition.
