Event: on March 3, China Automotive Data Co., Ltd. released the joint research results of integral price prediction in 2021: the annual prediction range of integral accounting is 26 Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002900) yuan / min (based on the mid-2021 perspective, the prediction of the trading period from January to December 2021); The annual forecast range of integral trading is 10001400 yuan / minute (based on the forecast of the trading period from January to September 2022 from the perspective of the beginning of 2022).
The predicted price of double integral fluctuates greatly, which is affected by market supply and demand. The reason why the predicted trading price of new energy points will decrease in a short time is mainly because the rapid growth of production and sales of new energy vehicles in 21 years has increased the supply of market points, thus affecting the trading price. According to the data of the passenger Federation, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2.989 million in 21 years, and the total positive points of corresponding market flows were greatly improved. The new energy points of the whole year reached 8.43 million, an increase of 3 million over 5.42 million in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 55%.
The differentiation of enterprise points is serious, and new energy is still the strategic focus. We calculate the sensitivity of nev score (new energy score) according to the penetration rate of different new energy vehicles. We assume that the total output of passenger vehicles in the whole year is 25 million, and the average single score is 3 points. If calculated according to the requirement of 18% of new energy vehicles in 2023, although the actual value of nev can cover the standard value of nev, the difference between them is far from covering the negative integral of CAFC (average fuel consumption integral). With the further improvement of fuel consumption requirements, the CAFC negative score generated in the sales model will further increase. Therefore, we believe that even if the growth of sales volume of new energy vehicles promotes the increase of positive integral supply in the market and the decrease of transaction price, CAFC and nev have not reached the surplus of positive integral, and the differentiation of automobile enterprises is serious, so the value of nev positive integral is prominent. We believe that the reduction of transaction price will not affect the driving force of OEMs' R & D and sales of new energy vehicles. In the long run, as new energy is the strategic focus, nev transaction price may rise. Automobile enterprises need to make an overall layout of new energy and fuel vehicles to achieve a positive balance between CAFC and nev.
Investment suggestion: the price fluctuation of double points is the influence of market supply and demand. The change of point trading revenue of a single enterprise will not affect the driving force of enterprises to develop new energy. Under the pressure of fuel consumption integral CAFC, lightweight, hybrid and other fuel consumption reduction measures will help reduce the pressure. Under the pressure of new energy integral nev, the development of electrification and high-voltage charging is conducive to the improvement of endurance mileage, so as to improve the overall performance level of nev. We believe that the vehicle enterprises with comprehensive layout in the field of hybrid and pure electricity will further benefit. The OEMs recommend Geely Automobile (0175. HK), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (02238. HK), and suggest paying attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) ( Byd Company Limited(002594) . SZ).
Risk warning: downside risk of new energy vehicle demand; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; The new energy policy was less than expected.
