Steady growth is good for industrial metals, and rare earth oxides fluctuate at a high level
Copper: Russia Ukraine geopolitical friction continues, and global inflation expectations are rising. Against the background of steady growth, China’s copper demand improved. Pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) . As of March 9, Shanghai copper closed at 72720 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 1.68%; The inventory reported 745.96 million tons, with a weekly change of 1.91%.
Aluminum: the reduction of aluminum price this week caused the profit of electrolytic aluminum industry to drop, but it is optimistic about the repair of electrolytic aluminum profit under the background of steady growth. Pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) . As of March 9, Shanghai aluminum reported 21830 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of – 4.90%; The inventory received 204123 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 17.82%.
Rare earth permanent magnet: the price of rare earth oxide mainly fell this week. As of March 9, praseodymium oxide (the lowest price) closed at 1080000 yuan / ton, unchanged during the week; Neodymium oxide (lowest price) closed at 1180000, with a weekly change of – 1.67%; Praseodymium neodymium oxide (lowest price) closed at 1079000 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of – 1.01%; Dysprosium oxide (lowest price) closed at 3070 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of – 0.97%; Terbium oxide (lowest price) closed at 15020 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of – 1.31%. The rare earth industry is in a new growth cycle, and the price is expected to continue the rising trend of the beginning of the year. The rare earth industry has undergone fundamental changes in terms of supply and demand. The orderly and highly centralized supply pattern in China and the stabilization of global supply have reduced the supply elasticity. It is estimated that the annual rare earth mining and smelting index in 2022 will be about 202000 tons, an increase of about 20% year-on-year. In terms of demand, under the background of global low-carbon and electrification, new energy vehicles, improved energy efficiency of industrial motors, wind power, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) etc. have replaced consumer electronics and become the main driving force of rare earth permanent magnet demand, resulting in a leap in magnitude. We expect the average annual compound growth rate to be about 26% from 2022 to 25. Pay attention to Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) .
Risk tip: the global economic recovery is less than expected; US inflation remains high; The production and sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; The energy crisis eased more than expected; The demand for magnetic materials is less than expected; Rapid recovery of supply in Myanmar; Power rationing less than expected
