Core view
The industrial trend of integrated die casting technology of body structure parts is clear
Integrated die casting of body structure parts is an inevitable choice for lightweight, cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the automotive industry. Led by Tesla and followed by new forces such as weixiaoli, Ford, Volvo, Volkswagen and other traditional OEMs have gradually changed from hesitation to transformation. In 2021, Tesla, Wencan and others took the lead in breaking through the integrated die-casting process of rear floor. In 2022, the industrialization trend will be significantly accelerated thanks to the mass production of rear floor products, the breakthrough of front engine room products, the increase of large press capacity of more than 6000 tons and the progress of industrial chain technology and technology.
Market space: the body structure is a 100 billion race track, with components materials Press mold
It is estimated that by 2025, the market space of China’s integrated die-casting body structure parts / large die-casting machine / heat-free aluminum alloy / large die will be 376 / 50 / 161 / 1.1 billion respectively, and the corresponding gagr will be 160% / 90% / 139% / 131% respectively; All links of the industrial chain have doubled or above growth rate, among which the integrated die-casting body structure has the largest space and the fastest growth rate; In the long run, the market space of integrated die-casting body structure parts is the largest, with the global / Chinese market space of 610 / 183 billion yuan respectively, the global / Chinese market space of large die-casting machines is 218 / 6.5 billion yuan respectively, the global / Chinese market space of heat-free aluminum alloy materials is 250 / 75 billion yuan respectively, and the global / Chinese market space of molds is 18.25/5.48 billion yuan respectively
Pattern: parts are locally dominated, press supply is in short supply, and heat free materials are gradually broken through locally
At present, the components are mainly local enterprises, and Wencan is relatively leading in terms of order, process and layout. Although it is self-made by Tesla and other main engine manufacturers, in the long run, with the maturity of the industrial chain, we think it is still dominated by Tier1; At present, the supply of press is in short supply, and Lijin is leading in delivery, order and research projects. Buhler and Haitian have delivered 6000 tons of press; Materials are usually developed by material manufacturers or scientific research institutes together with tier (or host plant). In the early stage, Alcoa has achieved mass supply, and local enterprises Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) have mass production of products; In the mold process, Guangdong cavity has received more orders from Tier1 (or main engine factory), and Wen canxiongbang has the ability of self-making.
Technical barriers: parts molds Equipment materials
We believe that technical barrier parts molds Equipment materials. The integrated die-casting body structural parts have the characteristics of large size, thin wall and complex structure. They have high requirements for strength and elongation. They need heat-free materials, large die-casting machines and molds, high vacuum air compression casting technology, etc. they have more know-how. At the same time, the integration has significantly improved the asset barrier.
Investment opportunities: key recommended parts link forward-looking card position leader
In the long run, the low turnover property of integrated die casting heavy assets leads to the dominance of Tier1. It is recommended that Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) with leading technology / capacity layout, orders and mass production is imminent. It is recommended to pay attention to Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) and Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) (covered by new metal material group) that has completed the development of heat-free aluminum alloy; In terms of equipment, it is suggested to pay attention to Lijin technology, the leader of China’s die-casting machine (covered by the mechanical group), and Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) (covered by the mechanical group) which is developing 7000t die-casting machine.
