The wholesale sales volume in February was 26.7% year-on-year
In February, the wholesale sales volume of generalized passenger cars was 2.202 million, with a month on month ratio of + 26.7% / – 32.8% respectively. In February, the retail sales volume of narrow passenger cars was 1.246 million, with the same / month on month growth rates of 4.2% / – 40% respectively. The sales volume in February was in line with the expectation. Due to the Spring Festival holiday and the natural fewer days in February, compared with the loss of nearly 10 days in January, the sales volume in February fell by about 40% month on month in history. Therefore, the month on month decline in February in 22 was in line with the expectation and better than the historical average. From January to February 2022, the wholesale sales volume of broad passenger cars was 3.658 million, a year-on-year increase of + 14%, and the retail sales volume of narrow passenger cars was 3.324 million, a year-on-year increase of – 1%. The overall sales were stable and upward.
In February, the penetration rate of new energy reached a record high of nearly 22%, and Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) performed well
In February, 317000 new energy passenger vehicles were wholesale, with a month on month ratio of 189.1% / – 24.1% respectively. The penetration rate reached a record high of 21.8%. The negative impact of the price rise of new energy vehicles was limited. In February, the new energy vehicle market still continued its ultra-high boom. From the perspective of enterprises, five new energy wholesale sales exceeded 10000 in February, Byd Company Limited(002594) / Tesla China / SAIC GM Wuling / Geely / Chery sales were 87473 / 56515 / 26046 / 14285 / 10271 respectively, of which Byd Company Limited(002594) and Tesla performed well, Byd Company Limited(002594) February sales were only – 5.9% month on month, and Tesla Shanghai factory sales were only – 5.6% month on month. Among the new forces, the sales volume of ideal / Nezha / Xiaopeng / Weilai / Zero run is 8414 / 7117 / 6225 / 6131 / 3435 respectively. Among the joint venture brands, the wholesale sales volume of North South Volkswagen new energy vehicles was 11916, with a month on month ratio of – 12.8%, accounting for 58% of the mainstream joint venture.
The independent share remained high, while the American and German shares fell
In February, 160000 luxury cars were retailed, a year-on-year decrease of 3%; Mainstream joint venture brands retail 550000 vehicles, with a year-on-year decrease of 1%, of which the market shares of Japanese / German / American are 23.1% / 20.5% / 9.1% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.6pct / – 4pct / – 0.6pct respectively; The retail sales volume of independent brands was 540000, with a year-on-year increase of 14%, and the market share was 44%, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.3pct. The independent share remained high, of which Byd Company Limited(002594) performed well and gained a significant increase in share in the new energy market.
Investment strategy
The escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the Western sanctions against Russia triggered further exacerbated the tension in the global supply chain. For example, the global head vehicle harness suppliers Lenny, Sumitomo Electric and anbofu have closed Ukrainian factories indefinitely. From the end of February to the beginning of March, some car enterprises in European countries stopped production to varying degrees. The rapid rise in the prices of some energy and bulk materials in Russia is an important short-term result. Under multiple factors, the market’s expectation of the automobile sector has hit the bottom in the short term. For the current situation, please refer to 21q3, wait for the inflection point, and usher in better opportunities after adjustment. In terms of volume, referring to the 21q3 Southeast Asia epidemic chip supply chain crisis, the head independent and new forces have good sales toughness. On the cost side, the pressure of bulk price increase in 2021 is basically borne by the parts suppliers. This year, the price adjustment and subsidies of the main engine factory began to be reflected. At the current stage, it is recommended to select China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) , which has good performance toughness in decoupling sales, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , which has strong certainty in Tesla supply chain, and Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , which has achieved significant increment in electric intelligence. The medium-term dimension continues to be optimistic about the rise of domestic production and electric intelligence, focusing on four sub areas: integrated die casting, intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit and localization of passenger car seats, providing better opportunities for callback.
Passenger cars: the independent rise in 2022 will continue to be deduced, which is mainly driven by the following three factors: 1) the mainstream price of pure electricity has improved with the supply of more models; 2) Usher in the first year of hybrid independently and challenge the 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 fuel vehicle market; 3) With the acceleration of intelligence, the independent advantage is more obvious. We believe that the market share of new forces + Tesla + head is expected to continue to increase this year. Highlight [ Byd Company Limited(002594) ], [Geely Automobile (H)], [ Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ]; It is suggested to pay attention to Xiao Peng, ideal and Wei Lai.
Parts and components of the ”s Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ (Tesla industrial chain), China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) (testing), etc, Focus on Foryou Corporation(002906) (HUD), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (lightweight), Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc.
Risk tips
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine affected the automobile supply chain, the chip supply was lower than expected, the automobile sales were lower than expected, and the price of raw materials rose sharply.
