The expectation of steady growth was strengthened, and the requirements for steady employment were improved. The GDP growth target of 5.5% in 2022 is in line with the market expectation, “it needs hard work to achieve”. Compared with the years before the epidemic, the target of 5.5% continued the downward trend of growth rate (GDP growth rate decreased from 6.9% in 2017 to 6.1% in 2019), which is closely related to the improvement of China’s total economic volume and the shift stage of economic growth; Compared with the two years since the epidemic, the target of 5.5% is more positive. The average growth rate of China’s GDP in the past two years has been 5.1%. Since the epidemic, the growth rate of major economies in the world has slowed significantly; According to the target of doubling GDP in 2035, CAGR needs to reach 4.7% from 2020 to 2035. Under the assumption of high growth rate before low growth rate, the target of 5.5% in 2022 is conducive to guiding the economic growth expectation in the next few years. On the other hand, the requirements for stabilizing employment have also been improved, and the target of urban survey unemployment rate has been adjusted from 5.5% in 2021 to less than 5.5% in 2022; However, the number of college graduates will reach a record high of 10.76 million in 2022. Since 2021q3, the current employment feeling and future employment expectation of urban residents have decreased significantly. It is expected that the support for some industries with large employment capacity and diversified jobs may increase during the year, and the prominent problems in workers’ rights and interests are expected to be further solved.
Steady growth in 2022, focusing on infrastructure investment and consumption. The chapter on expanding domestic demand in the government work report refers to consumption and investment respectively (from the expression, investment focuses on infrastructure), expanding infrastructure investment and promoting the recovery of consumption, which may be the main starting point for steady growth in 2022. From the performance of the driving factors of China’s economic growth in recent years and the current internal and external environment, the setting of the above focus direction is reasonable. Exports and real estate investment have been important drivers of China’s economic growth in the past two years, but there is a certain growth pressure in 2022: Although the export toughness is still strong, the rapid growth of net exports throughout the year may be suppressed by the rise of the base and the external environment; The real estate statement is relatively mild and various demand side measures have been intensively introduced recently. However, at present, the number of real estate enterprises whose sales have not fully recovered and liquidity shortage continues to increase, and there may still be some pressure on real estate investment throughout the year.
Active financial support is expected to promote the growth of infrastructure investment in 2022, and tax relief is expected to help manufacturing investment. The investment expansion section of the government work report mainly refers to the construction of water conservancy projects, energy bases and facilities, urban gas pipelines, flood control and drainage facilities and underground comprehensive pipe gallery. Compared with the previous statements, the project is more specific and can be promoted quickly through more active financial arrangements: 1) financial support will be increased in 2022, The proposed amount of new local government special bonds during the year is similar to that of the previous year, and the amount of investment in the central budget is increased by 30 billion yuan to 640 billion yuan compared with last year; 2) Under the function of financial postposition in 2021, part of the special bond funds of the previous year can continue to be used in 2022; 3) The government work report proposed that “specific state-owned financial institutions and franchised institutions turn over the balance profits in recent years according to law and transfer into the budget stability adjustment fund” will improve the available financial resources. On March 8, the central bank will turn over more than 1 trillion yuan of balance profits, which provides a strong guarantee for financial funds. In addition, the support of fiscal and monetary policies may directly boost the manufacturing investment during the year, such as increasing the plus deduction proportion of science and technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises from 75% to 100%, refunding all the incremental tax credits of advanced manufacturing industry, and guiding financial institutions to increase medium and long-term loans in manufacturing industry.
Support key consumer categories and promote the sinking of consumption channels. At present, the uncertainty of epidemic prevention and control still exists, and some consumer categories and county and township consumption are the focus of policy support. 1) Key consumer categories: new energy vehicles, green smart appliances going to the countryside and exchanging old for new. The sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China achieved a high growth rate of 157% in 2021, reflecting the real consumer demand to a certain extent. 2) Consumption channels: support the development of new consumption formats and county and township consumption, which is related to the lack of consumption scenes of some residents under the epidemic, the continuous narrowing of the gap between urban and rural per capita disposable income and per capita consumption expenditure, and the construction of logistics and other infrastructure in the sinking Market. Consumption coupons, consumption festivals, etc. are not mentioned in the national government work report, or are more means of promotion fees in some regions.
Risk tip: there is uncertainty in the control policy and epidemic prevention and control.
