The history of intelligent driving is a new opportunity, and the volume and price of on-board cameras are rising at the same time. In 2022, there will be many smart models with L2 + and above on the market, and the world will usher in the window from L2 to L3 / L4. It is expected that the penetration rates of L2, L3 and L4 / L5 will reach 30%, 35% and 20% respectively in 2030. As the core sensor of the sensing layer, the on-board camera ushers in the opportunity of both volume and price with the continuous upgrading of the function of automobile ADAS. Quantity: L2, L3 and L4 / L5 will carry 8, 11 and 12 cameras on average; Price: the unit price of ordinary car camera is about 150200 yuan, and the unit price of ADAS camera is about 400500 yuan, and the upgrading of sensing function will further increase the value. Combined with the penetration rate of ADAS, on-board camera carrying scheme and value calculation, we predict that the market scale of on-board camera will reach 45.4 billion yuan in 2021, 92.2/164.5 billion yuan in 2025 / 2030 and 19.4% CAGR in 202125.
High barriers achieve high concentration, and large space provides strong growth. 1) High barriers: first, high safety requirements endow technical barriers. The on-board CIS requires high HDR, LFM and other functions to ensure the accuracy and stability of perception. ADAS lenses mostly use glass lenses with better optical performance, better durability but more difficult to mass produce; Second, the cycle of vehicle regulation level certification is long, usually 2-3 years. It is difficult for new entrants to achieve mass production in a short time. Therefore, the market share of vehicle mounted cameras is highly concentrated. The top five vehicle mounted CIS manufacturers in the world account for 80%, and the global vehicle mounted lens only Shunyu optics accounts for more than 30%. 2) Large space: we estimate that the market scale of vehicle CIS, vehicle lens and module packaging will reach 48 / 184 / 17.5 billion yuan respectively in 2025, and the CAGR will be about 21% in 202025; In 2030, the market scale will be further increased to 85.6/32.9/31.3 billion yuan respectively.
Car camera golden track, leading manufacturers for ten years of high growth. 1) In terms of on-board CIS, Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) cooperates with BBA, Tesla, Geely, great wall, Byd Company Limited(002594) and other famous Chinese car companies. The global market share in 2021 is about 29%, and with leading layout, technology and capacity advantages, the share is expected to exceed 40% in 2025, ranking first in the world on-board CIS. In addition, weir has gradually formed a platform layout of on-board products, and CIS, screen drive, MCU, LCOS, SerDes and other on-board products blossom in multiple points, bringing continuous growth momentum. 2) In terms of vehicle lens and module, sunny optics has been deeply engaged in the optical track for more than 30 years, and has grown into an industry leader in the field of mobile phones and vehicle cameras. It has leading advantages in technical strength and customer resources, and is expected to take advantage of the development opportunity of ADAS to a new level Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) through the supply of GoPro motion camera, the manufacturing capacity of molded glass was accumulated in 2014. ADAS lens was supplied to Weilai and Tesla. Through strategic cooperation with NVIDIA, Mobileye, Huawei and Baidu, it has accumulated a little in the field of ADAS lens and is expected to gradually grow into the second in the world. Moreover, the packaging business of ADAS lens module is expected to gradually transfer from Tier1 to vehicle lens manufacturers, further opening up the growth space of vehicle lens manufacturers.
Investment suggestion: the development of intelligent driving is accelerated, the on-board camera rises in the wind, and the leading manufacturers have high growth certainty. It is recommended to pay attention to the vehicle platform manufacturer Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , the global longyi Shunyu optics, the global potential longer Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , and the leading CIS sealing and testing company in China China Wafer Level Csp Co.Ltd(603005) .
Risk tip: the penetration rate of intelligent vehicles is lower than expected; Unable to maintain the competitive advantage of relevant companies; The information used in the research report is not updated in time; The demand / scale calculation is lower than expected, etc
