Core view
Among the companies that announced the performance forecast, only three in the A-share semiconductor segment suffered losses. TSMC expects the global semiconductor market to grow by 9% year-on-year in 2022. By the end of January 2022, a total of 71 companies in the A-share semiconductor segment had announced performance forecasts, and only 3 had made losses. TSMC said that based on the HPC of high-performance computing, the high demand of the continuously recovering automobile market and the mobile phone business with lower seasonal impact compared with the past, TSMC expects the semiconductor market (except storage) to grow by 9% in 2022.
Power: with the continuous expansion of downstream application fields, the scale of power semiconductor market is growing rapidly. China’s power semiconductor market is becoming more and more mature. As the world’s largest power semiconductor consumer, China’s market scale will grow steadily with the continuous expansion of downstream application fields. According to IHS data, the demand scale of China’s power market reached US $13.88 billion in 2018, accounting for 35.3% of the global demand. The scale of China’s power market is expected to reach US $18.27 billion in 2022 and CAGR will reach 7.11% in 20182022.
RF: the market has maintained steady growth. The wide application of wireless networks has driven the demand for high-quality and safer wireless network products, bringing greater growth opportunities for the RF industry. According to yole data, the compound growth rate of RF market will reach 6% from 2020 to 2025, and the global scale is expected to reach US $3.6 billion in 2025.
Storage: in recent years, the semiconductor memory market is in an upward cycle, and the positive development of many applications will drive the strong growth of the market. Sk Hynix believes that the memory industry will start to pick up in 2020 and 2021, and is expected to remain in an upward cycle in the next few years. Meguiar predicts that in 2022, the market demand for DRAM will increase by 15% – 20% year-on-year, and the demand for NAND will increase by 30% year-on-year.
Simulation: the analog chip industry chain is still difficult to get rid of the supply shortage, and the demand of downstream industries is extremely strong. According to WSTS data, analog chips accounted for 13.18% of the global semiconductor market in 2022. The downstream demand remained high and the market space was broad. According to the data of China Semiconductor Association, the self-sufficiency rate of analog chips in China is only 12% in 2020, and there are broad prospects for domestic substitution.
CIS: with the increasing demand for cameras in automobile, security and other fields, the demand for CIS increases. According to yole data, the CMOS camera module market is expected to reach US $57 billion in 2025, of which the scale of CIS is US $24.2 billion, accounting for 42.46%. Benefiting from the increase of vehicle camera shipments and the rapid growth of vehicle CIS market, the automotive sector will continue to become the fastest growing segment of CIS.
Aiot: the global epidemic has accelerated the popularity of the Internet of things and intelligence. IDC predicts that the total number of Internet of things connections in China will reach 10.27 billion by 2025. China’s aiot digital chip design industry started late, and there is huge room for domestic substitution. With the smooth progress of policy support and enterprise R & D in recent years, the scale of some leading enterprises has increased rapidly and the market share has gradually expanded.
Semiconductor materials: with the rapid development of downstream related fields, the demand for new equipment will promote the continuous growth of the market scale of semiconductor materials. According to the prediction of Xinyue chemical, from the perspective of macro economy, the semiconductor material market is closely related to the prosperity of downstream application fields, and the two are closely related to the macro-economic environment. The future market trend depends in part on the macro-economy.
Silicon carbide substrate: the market scale continues to expand, and various fields drive the explosive growth of the industry. According to the data of markets and markets, the compound annual growth rate of the global silicon carbide market is expected to be 18.7% from 2021 to 2026, and the scale of the silicon carbide market will reach US $2.113 billion by 2026. With strong support from the state, Chinese substrate companies are expected to make a greater leap in technology and production capacity.
Wafer Foundry: in 2022, the full capacity will be maintained, and the growth trend of wafer foundry market is obvious. According to digitimesresearch, the phenomenon of “core shortage” may still exist in 2022. On the one hand, there is interference from factors such as epidemic on the supply side, on the other hand, the demand for Chinese chips on the demand side continues to increase, so major wafer factories will continue to expand production capacity. TSMC expects the semiconductor market (excluding storage) to grow by 9% and the wafer foundry to grow by 20% in 2022.
Sealing and testing: the limitation of advanced sealing and testing capacity and supply may continue until 2023. According to yole data, the compound annual growth rate of global advanced packaging is expected to be 8% from 2020 to 2026, and the proportion of advanced packaging is expected to be close to 50% in 2026 Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) believes that the explosion of the new energy vehicle market will continue to drive the demand for on-board sealing and testing and benefit the on-board sealing and testing business.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in various semiconductor sectors with outstanding innovation ability, excellent product level and strong supply chain management and control ability.
Risk tips
The downstream demand for semiconductors is lower than expected, the repeated covid-19 epidemic brings the risk of shipment obstruction, and the black swan incident brings the risk of semiconductor capacity obstruction.
