Event:
China Construction Machinery Industry Association released the excavator sales data in February 2022. In February 2022, the 26 main engine manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics sold 24483 excavators, a year-on-year decrease of 13.50%; Among them, the sales volume in the Chinese market was 17052 units, a year-on-year decrease of 30.58%; The export sales volume was 7431 units, with a year-on-year increase of 98.53%.
Comments:
In February, the year-on-year decline in excavator sales narrowed and improved month on month. In February 2022, the sales volume of excavators was 24483 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.50% and a month on month increase of 56.87%; China’s sales volume was 17052 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 30.58% and a month on month increase of 105.89%; The export sales volume was 7431 units, with a year-on-year increase of 98.53% and a month on month increase of 1.45%. The year-on-year decline of excavator monthly sales and China’s monthly sales narrowed, and the year-on-year growth rate will gradually return to positive. China’s sales volume turned positive and increased significantly month on month, and the prosperity of downstream industries gradually rebounded, which will drive the demand for construction machinery. In addition, the operating hours of excavators in February were 47.90 hours, an increase of 9.11% over the same period in 2021 (after the epidemic) and 6.68% over the same period in 2019 (before the epidemic). The downstream projects started actively, and the demand showed a marginal improvement trend. In terms of tonnage structure, in February, the sales volume of large excavation was 1537 units, the sales volume of medium excavation was 4000 units and the sales volume of small excavation was 11515 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 41.09%, 46.11% and 20.76% respectively, and a month on month increase of 50.24%, 112.88% and 114.03% respectively. The sales volume of excavators of various tonnage has improved month on month. The demand for mines, real estate, infrastructure and rural construction in downstream application fields has increased, and the marginal improvement of small excavation sales volume is particularly obvious. We believe that the main reason is that the state vigorously promotes rural modernization and the old reform of urban communities to stimulate demand.
Actively expand effective investment and moderately advance infrastructure investment. In 2022, on the basis of steady growth, infrastructure investment will be carried out moderately ahead of schedule around the major national strategic deployment and the 14th five year plan. This year, we will continue to strengthen the construction of key water conservancy projects, urban renewal, urban flood control and drainage projects, involving the old transformation of urban communities, flood control projects, drainage networks and other flood control and drainage facilities. In addition, the government work report announced that the amount of new special bonds in 2022 was 3.65 trillion yuan, the same as that in 2021. The newly added special bonds will adhere to the principle that the funds follow the project and reasonably expand the scope of use. Different from the government’s idle fund control in 2021 and the slow progress of special bond issuance, this year’s adjustment and steady growth, appropriate advance infrastructure investment will accelerate the progress of special bond issuance, and the progress of new special bond issuance in 2022 will be accelerated. In January 2022, 484.4 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, accelerating the issuance progress of new special bonds compared with the same period last year, which will effectively support the recovery of the prosperity of downstream industries and stimulate the demand for construction machinery and equipment.
Investment suggestion: in February 2022, the year-on-year decline of excavator sales in China narrowed, and the chain ratio changed from negative to positive. Compared with the same period in 2021, we believe that the operating hours of excavators in the lower reaches will recover, and the operating hours of excavators in each month will be improved compared with the same period in 2022. In the government work report, while adjusting and stabilizing growth, actively expand effective investment, appropriately advance infrastructure investment, add new special bonds, and balance the higher issuance amount last year, which will effectively support the start of downstream infrastructure projects and is expected to stimulate the demand for construction machinery and equipment. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders in the construction machinery industry: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ( Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ), Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ( Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ), Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) ( Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) ), Guangxi Liugong Machinery Co.Ltd(000528) ( Guangxi Liugong Machinery Co.Ltd(000528) ).
Risk tips: macroeconomic downturn, decline in industry prosperity, deterioration of overseas trade environment, rise in raw material prices, less than expected issuance of special bonds, less than expected infrastructure / real estate investment, etc.
