The Investment Event passenger car Federation released the production and sales data of passenger cars in February 2022: the retail sales volume of that month was 1.246 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.2% and a month on month decrease of – 40%; The wholesale sales volume was 1.455 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 26.9% and a month on month increase of – 32.6%; The output was 1.492 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 31.4% and a month on month decrease of – 27%.
Our analysis and judgment
1) in February, wholesale was better than retail, independent brands performed well, and the growth rate was far higher than the industry average. In February 2022, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.246 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.2% and a month on month increase of – 40%. The wholesale sales of manufacturers reached 1.455 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 26.9% and a month on month increase of – 32.6%. The growth rate of wholesale sales was significantly better than that of retail sales. From January to February, a total of 3.324 million vehicles were retailed, a year-on-year increase of – 1.8%. As some enterprises started earlier after the Spring Festival, and the epidemic spread in February exceeded expectations, prompting a large number of middle-aged migrant workers to return, the structural recovery of the auto market is facing better opportunities. From the perspective of structure, (1) 160000 luxury cars were retailed in February, with a year-on-year increase of – 3% and a month on month increase of – 44%, which failed to continue the trend in January; (2) The retail sales of 540000 self owned brands were + 14% year on year and – 42% month on month. The performance of leading enterprises of self owned brands was differentiated. The brands of traditional automobile enterprises such as Byd Company Limited(002594) showed a high growth year on year; (3) The retail sales of joint venture brands were 550000, with a year-on-year increase of – 1% and a month on month increase of – 36%, of which the Japanese share was 23.1%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.6pct, the German share was 20.5%, with a year-on-year increase of – 4pct, and the American share was 9.1% and a year-on-year increase of – 0.6%.
2) the sales volume of new energy vehicles recovered, which was in contrast to the trend of traditional fuel vehicles, and the penetration rate rose to 21.8%. In February, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 272000, with a year-on-year increase of + 180.5% and a month on month increase of – 22.6%; The wholesale sales volume reached 317000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 189.1% and a month on month decrease of – 24.1%. The month on month decrease of wholesale and retail sales is less than that in February of previous years. It is expected that it is related to the car purchase tide in the school season after the Spring Festival and the strong demand for new energy caused by the recent high oil price. In mid February, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) retail penetration rate was 21.8%, up 13 percentage points year on year. Diversified new energy passenger vehicle market, Byd Company Limited(002594) pure electric and plug-in hybrid dual drive consolidate the leading position of independent brand new energy; The performance of traditional automobile enterprises represented by Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) is relatively outstanding. There are five enterprises with wholesale sales exceeding 10000 vehicles, including Byd Company Limited(002594) (87000 vehicles), Tesla China (57000 vehicles), SAIC GM Wuling (26000 vehicles), Geely Automobile (14000 vehicles) and Chery Automobile (10000 vehicles). In terms of models, the wholesale sales volume of pure electric vehicles in February was 245000, a year-on-year increase of + 161.7%; The sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 72000, a year-on-year increase of + 350.9%. In terms of structure, the wholesale penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles is 38%, that of luxury vehicles is 29.4%, and that of mainstream joint ventures is only 3.3%. In February, the sales volume of high-end and medium and low-end models of electric vehicles achieved strong growth, including 68000 A00 wholesale sales, accounting for 28% of pure electric vehicles; Grade A0 wholesale sales of 33000 vehicles, accounting for 14% of pure electric vehicles; The share of class A is 23%, which remains stable; Class B sales reached 85000 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of – 15% and a share of 35%.
Investment suggestion: the prosperity of the head independent brand continues to rise. We suggest to continue to pay attention to Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ( Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) . SZ), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ( Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) . SH / 2333. HK), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ( Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) . SH); It is suggested to pay attention to the comprehensive leader Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ( Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) . SH), the subject of scarce lighting controller Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ( Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) . SH), and the supplier of active and passive safety for intelligent driving Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) ( Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) . SH).
Risk tips: 1. Macroeconomic uncertainty; 2. The risk that the sales volume of new energy vehicle industry is lower than expected. 3. The risk of capacity bottleneck caused by chip shortage.
