\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: the company announced that after preliminary accounting, from January to February 2022, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of more than 7.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 35%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be more than 2.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%. In 2022, the company continued to gather brand potential energy, comprehensively improved operation efficiency, overcame the impact of the epidemic in all sales areas, arranged the peak season of the Spring Festival in advance, the overall market was in good shape, and the medium and high-end products such as Qinghua Fenjiu series achieved substantial growth.
The rapid growth of blue and white series drives the high increase of profits. In 2021, the company adhered to the product strategy of “grasping blue and white liquor, strengthening waist and stabilizing glass Fen”, further optimized the product structure and continued to promote the circle expansion and market promotion of blue and white Fen Liquor. In 2021, the company’s dealer conference defined three indicators of Qinghua Fen Liquor in 2022: 1) sales index of Qinghua Fen Liquor, 2) terminal index of Qinghua 20, and 3) opinion leader group index of Qinghua Fen Liquor. By reducing costs, adjusting structure and improving quality, and superimposing the blue and white series quota system, the company has promoted the price upward. The price system of blue and white Fen Liquor has entered a positive cycle, and the channel enthusiasm is high. We believe that the blue and white series is positioned as products above the secondary high-end price, which is expected to become an important performance growth pole of the company in 2022. Among them, the blue and white 30 · Renaissance version occupies the price band of 1000 yuan, and gradually enters the circulation channel, which will help to improve the blue and white brand image and improve the overall profit margin of the company.
The nationalization continued to expand. In 2021, Q3 achieved 2.14 billion yuan / 2.98 billion yuan in and outside the province respectively, with an increase of 41% / 53% respectively, accounting for 58.2% outside the province. The nationalization expansion was steadily promoted. In 2021, the company deepened the “1357 + 10” market layout, strengthened market expansion in the south of the Yangtze River, and promoted steady breakthroughs in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Anhui, Guangdong and other markets. According to the company’s performance pre increase announcement, the company has more than 1 million controllable terminal outlets in the national market, and the growth potential outside the province is still strong. It is expected that the company’s market in the south of the Yangtze River is still expected to maintain rapid growth in 2022.
With the change of the chairman, the performance is expected to continue to grow rapidly. On December 17, 2021, the company announced that Mr. Li Qiuxi applied to resign from the position of chairman, director, chairman of the strategy committee of the board of directors and member of the nomination committee due to his retirement. After his resignation, Mr. Li Qiuxi will no longer hold any position in the company. Meanwhile, Fenjiu Group, the controlling shareholder of the company, recommended Mr. Yuan Qingmao as the director and chairman of the 8th board of directors of the company according to the needs of work, which will take effect after being deliberated and approved by the board of directors and the general meeting of shareholders of the company. The new chairman, yuan Qingmao, 52, once served as deputy director of Shanxi Provincial Department of communications, party secretary and chairman of Shanxi Communications Holding Group Co., Ltd. he is familiar with the enterprise operation. The replacement of the company’s management is expected to be stable. It is expected that the company’s performance is still expected to benefit from the rapid growth of brand nationalization dividends.
Investment suggestion: the company’s revenue and profit increased rapidly from January to February, and the medium and high-end products such as Qinghua Fenjiu series increased significantly, driving the continuous upgrading of the company’s product structure. Based on the company’s performance forecast, the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be 20.5/27/33.3 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company is 54 / 76 / 9.7 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 62 / 44 / 35x respectively, Considering the growth and certainty of the company, maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) the dynamic sales and price of Qinghua and Bofen are lower than expected; 2) The epidemic caused consumption to fall short of expectations
