\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Event overview: on March 8, 2022, the company released the February production and sales express, and the automobile sales volume was 70800, with a year-on-year ratio of - 20.5% / month on month ratio of - 36.7%; From January to February, the cumulative sales volume was 182600, with a year-on-year increase of - 20.0%.
The shortage of chip supply restricts the production capacity, and the company's sales volume is under pressure in the short term. The company's sales volume in February fell by 20.5% year-on-year, weaker than the industry performance (according to the data of the passenger Federation, the sales volume of China's narrow passenger cars in February was 1.455 million, year-on-year + 26.9% / month on month - 32.6%). Mainly due to 1) the impact of the Spring Festival holiday; 2) The supply of Bosch ESP chips is limited (Bosch ESP is the exclusive supplier of the company's main models). In terms of brands, the sales volume of Haval / tank / Euler / wey / pickup truck was 4.20/0.65/0.63/0.4411600 respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 31.2% / + 96.0% / - 15.1% / + 103.1% / - 23.1%. Only the tank and wey brands had a high year-on-year growth rate under the influence of low base, and the other three brands fell year-on-year. At present, the shortage of ESP chip supply is a short-term disturbance. At present, the company is actively negotiating with suppliers. It is expected that the ESP chip supply is expected to recover gradually in March, and the chip supply will be further alleviated in the second and third quarters. At present, the company has abundant orders on hand, and the recovery of chips is expected to promote the upward sales.
The sales structure continues to be optimized, and there is a strong demand for high-end personalized models. In terms of key models by brand: 1) Haval: the sales volume of Haval H6 was 19600, with a year-on-year increase of - 38.1%; The sales volume of Haval divine beast exceeded 5000, and the cumulative sales volume exceeded 20000 in the three months after listing, with a bright sales performance. 2) Tanks: the sales volume of tank 300 is 6500, and the cumulative sales volume on the market is more than 100000. Tank 500 (the effective order on the first day of pre-sale at Guangzhou auto show is more than 22000) will be listed in March, and the high-end will boost the profits of tanks. 3) Euler: the sales volume of good cats is 4100, with a year-on-year increase of + 165.1%. The subsequent launch of about 200000 star models such as ballet cat and lightning cat is expected to increase both volume and price. 4) Wey: the sales volume of latte DHT was 2400, with a month on month increase of + 52.4%; The Mocha DHT PHEV equipped with a full stack of self-developed high-level intelligent driving Noh was listed globally in March to enter the high-end new energy market. 5) Great Wall pickup truck: the sales volume of Great Wall gun is 8500, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.9%. It continues to sell well under the lack of core. The diamond gun was opened for pre-sale in March, which is expected to further open the pickup market. In 2022, products such as Haval cool dog, tank 500 / 700 / 800, Euler ballet cat / Euler punk cat / Euler lightning cat, King Kong Gun (the first super running pickup truck concept car), salon brand mecha dragon will be listed one after another, and the high-end brand will continue to promote, helping the Great Wall to achieve both volume and price.
The modular platform accelerates the model iteration, and the intelligent technology enables the brand to move up. From January to February 2022, lemon, tank and coffee intelligent technology brands accounted for 75.1%. Relying on the modular platform of "lemon + tank + coffee intelligence" to reduce costs and increase efficiency, the iteration of the company's models is accelerated. In terms of intelligent driving, from January to February 2022, the proportion of Great Wall intelligent vehicles has increased to 88.1%. The Noh advanced intelligent driving self-developed by the whole stack of FeMo Zhixing plans to carry 34 Great Wall passenger cars by the end of 2022. Under the technical empowerment, the sales volume of models with a value of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) 150000 yuan or more increased to 15.5% from January to February. In the future, with the gradual implementation of high-end models of various brands, the profitability of the company is expected to be further improved.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 6.782/11.25/14.459 billion respectively, corresponding to 40 / 25 / 19 times of the current share price PE respectively. Optimistic about the company's electric intelligent development and multi brand strategic development, and maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the supply of chips is less than expected, and the recovery of passenger car market is less than expected
