\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 185 Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) )
Received 3.6 billion silicon wafer orders from aixu; From 2022 to 2025, a total of 34.6 billion yuan was signed; Q1 silicon wafer prosperity upward
1) obtain the renewal order of Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) 3.6 billion silicon wafers from the battery leader: according to the company's announcement, from March 2022 to December 2024, aixu will purchase 552 million silicon wafers (estimated to be about 4gw) from Hongyuan new material (Shangji silicon chip subsidiary), with a total amount of 3.599 billion yuan (including tax). At present, the company's customers have covered Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Atlas, Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) , Chint new energy, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Longheng new energy, Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) and other high-quality customers, including leading enterprises of high-quality component equipment and high-quality battery. From 2022 to 2025, the company has signed silicon wafer orders totaling nearly 34.6 billion yuan (according to the quotation of pvinfolink at the time of signing). In the first quarter of 2022, the price of silicon wafer continued to rise, close to the new high in recent one year. It is expected that the profitability of the company is expected to rebound month on month.
2) silicon material guarantee: the total amount of silicon material contracts signed by the company exceeds 21 billion yuan, and the total amount of silicon material long orders signed with Xinte, Daquan, poly GCL and concentrating silicon from 2021 to 2025 exceeds 210000 tons (corresponding to about 70gw available). At the same time, the company cooperates closely with Tongwei and Trina Solar, participates in 5% equity of GCL Xinjiang, and jointly builds granular silicon with GCL. We estimate that the silicon material required by the company in 2022 has been basically guaranteed.
"Silicon wafer + silicon material + industrial silicon" is an upward integrated scarce target, and strive to break through the areas with high investment barriers in the industrial chain
1) monocrystalline silicon wafer: at present, the company's monocrystalline silicon production capacity reaches 30GW. Further expansion of production is not ruled out in 2022. It is expected that the shipment volume is expected to more than double in 2022. At the same time, as the company's self built slicing capacity gradually reaches the production capacity, there is room for further improvement of profitability.
2) silicon material + industrial silicon (completely self built): 150000 tons of high-purity industrial silicon + 100000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon project is proposed. The total capacity of the proposed phase I project of pure silicon is expected to reach RMB 20.25 million, of which the total capacity of the proposed phase I project of pure silicon is expected to reach RMB 18.5 million, of which the total capacity of the proposed phase I project of pure silicon is expected to be supported by about RMB 0.25 million. Phase II project will be promoted according to market conditions. At the same time, Guyang county government will provide the company with a total of 3.8gw photovoltaic power station and 1.7gw wind power station, which is expected to effectively ensure the company's low price advantage.
3) granular silicon (share participation and 70% output locking): the company has increased its capital by 1.02 billion yuan and jointly invested in the project with an annual output of 100000 tons of granular silicon + 150000 tons of high-purity nano silicon, with a share participation of 27%. After putting into operation, the machine will obtain no less than 70% of granular silicon (corresponding to 70000 tons), which can meet the silicon material demand of 25gw silicon wafer in the future, and strengthen the silicon material support ability and the core competitiveness of silicon wafer. The project is expected to be put into operation in the third quarter of 2022 and is expected to bring new profit growth points to the company's performance in 2022 and 2023. The company's upward integrated layout is "silicon wafer + silicon material + industrial silicon". Silicon material is an area with high investment barriers in the photovoltaic industry. The company's entry into silicon material will help ensure the raw material supply of the company's silicon wafer and further improve the company's comprehensive competitiveness and profitability in the industry.
2.5 billion convertible bonds have been issued: the conversion price is 145.66 yuan / share, and the placement of the original shareholders accounts for about 85% of the total amount of this issuance. This 2.5 billion convertible bonds have been issued (for the expansion of 10GW monocrystalline silicon production, which has reached the production capacity at present). The initial conversion price is 145.66 yuan / share, and the placement by the original shareholders accounts for about 85% of the total amount of this issuance. The issuance fee is expected to be 23.46 million yuan.
Investment suggestions: high growth and low value; The target of the integrated layout of "silicon wafer + silicon material + industrial silicon" is expected to have a net profit of RMB 1.64/25/4 billion from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 208% / 54% / 60%; Considering 2.5 billion convertible bonds, PE is 29 / 19 / 12 times, and PE valuation is low in the industry. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sharp expansion of production leads to the deterioration of the competition pattern, the price rise of silicon material affects the terminal demand, and the risk of technology iteration.
