\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 309 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) )
Event: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) released the performance express: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 145538 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 24.649 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 145.47%. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter was 5.107 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.84% and a month on month decrease of 15.04%.
Comments:
Supply and demand are unbalanced at different stages, and the volume and price of main products rise at the same time. In 2021, some MDI devices were affected by extreme weather, epidemic and other factors, resulting in phased imbalance between supply and demand and rising MDI prices. According to Wande, the average price of polymerized MDI / pure MDI in 2021 is 19870 (YoY + 37.45%) / 22342 (YoY + 25.27%) yuan / ton. The capacity expansion and technical transformation capacity of Yantai and BC increased by 500000 tons / 50000 tons respectively, the volume and price of main products increased simultaneously, and the performance increased significantly. Fujian’s 400000 tons of new capacity and Ningbo’s Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of expanded capacity are expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2022 / 2023 respectively, and Wanhua’s MDI market share is expected to further increase. In terms of TDI, the average price of TDI in 2021 was 14462 (YoY + 17.79%) yuan / ton, and the price has increased by 26.38% since the beginning of 2022. According to statista, the global TDI demand is expected to reach 2.77 million tons in 2022, and the TDI capacity of Wanhua Fujian is expected to grow rapidly. In terms of polyether, with the improvement of the company’s propylene oxide industrial chain, the company’s Polyether integration advantages and synergy with MDI are continuously strengthened, and the polyether production capacity is expected to grow rapidly.
The oil price pushed up the price of petrochemical products, and the million ton ethylene plant was put into operation. In 2021, with the commissioning of a new million ton ethylene plant, the production and sales of petrochemical products of the company increased significantly, and the new brands of polyolefin and PVC products were promoted in an orderly manner. At the same time, affected by the rise of crude oil price, it has formed a strong cost driving force for ethylene and polyolefin products, and petrochemical products show an upward trend as a whole. According to the central economic work conference, the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control, and the second ethylene plant is expected to accelerate.
Build an industrial cluster of fine chemicals and emerging materials, and the company will continue to strengthen its growth in the future. We expect that the company’s 40000 tons of nylon 12 products and 480000 tons of bisphenol A integration project are expected to be completed and put into operation in 2022. Establish Wanhua Penglai Co., Ltd. to build 900000 tons of propylene and downstream projects; Continuously deepen cooperation with Ningxia to promote the cluster development of spandex industry and the high-end development of new material industry; Join hands with Baowu carbon industry to enter the polyacrylonitrile based carbon fiber market, which has a broad market space. The company will continue to focus on the future and strengthen its growth.
Investment suggestion: Based on the expectation of MDI price fluctuation, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be 24.65 billion yuan, 26.32 billion yuan and 28.25 billion yuan respectively (the previous value was 25.1 billion yuan, 26.89 billion yuan and 28.78 billion yuan respectively), and PE was 10.9x/10.2x/9.5x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the price of products and raw materials fluctuates greatly; The production progress of the project does not meet the expectation; Safety and environmental protection factors.
