\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Key investment points
Event: the company disclosed its operating data. From January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 10.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The performance exceeded market expectations.
The Spring Festival mobile sales showed a beautiful performance and made a successful start. During the Spring Festival in 2022, the sales momentum of the company's products is good, the market is booming, and the company has successfully achieved a "good start"; The year-on-year increase in performance was mainly due to the price increase of non-standard liquor, the increment of new products in 1935, and the contribution of product and channel structure optimization. Specifically: 1. The company raised the prices of Chinese Zodiac liquor and high-quality Maotai Liquor by a large margin in March of 21. During the new year's day of 22, the company also raised the prices of rare Maotai and Maotai Vintage liquor to varying degrees. The price increase of non-standard liquor led to a significant increase in the ton price; 2. The new Maotai 1935 has been put on the market in an orderly manner since its listing. Maotai 1935 has outstanding brand strength and product strength, and has always been in a state of hot demand, and the new products have also contributed some increment; 3. It is expected that the market volume of Maotai liquor will increase slightly from January to February, and the proportion of high-quality liquor, zodiac and other non-standard liquor will continue to increase; The superimposed incremental quota is mainly put into direct sales channels such as self-supporting and e-commerce. The optimization of product and channel structure drives the overall ton price increase.
Great strides have been made to tackle tough problems in reform, and deepening reform is in progress. The company adheres to the "five line development path", actively carries out "five in one marketing", and makes it clear that Maotai will make "great strides" in reform and development in 2022, and accelerate the reform of products and channels. During the Spring Festival in 2022, the company adjusted the unpacking policy of Feitian Maotai liquor, cancelled the mandatory unpacking policy of 6 bottles per box, and added a new specification of 12 bottles per box. The incremental quota is mainly put into self-supporting, e-commerce and other direct channels to better meet the needs of consumers. In terms of product structure, the company launched a new rare Maotai liquor, with a super high-end layout, and further improved the product structure of high-end Maotai liquor; In addition, Maotai 1935, a heavy new product, was launched, and the price belt of 1000 yuan was arranged to be close to consumers, so as to effectively undertake the overflow demand of Feitian Maotai and become a new growth pole of the company.
The reform dividend continues to be released and is optimistic about the high elasticity of the whole year. 1. According to the historical base liquor quantity, the finished Maotai liquor is expected to increase by 3000 tons or more in 2022; In addition, it is expected that the annual release of the new Maotai 1935 can reach 20 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) tons, which also contributes to considerable growth. 2. In 2022, the incremental quota will be mainly put into direct sales channels such as e-commerce and supermarkets, so as to optimize the channel structure and drive the ton price increase at the same time; Recently, the company raised the price of some non-standard products, gradually implemented the market-oriented reform action, and made great strides in reform at the right time. 3. Adhering to the "five line development path" and the "five in one marketing method", the company has made clear the keynote of 22 years of rapid development. At present, the product matrix is improving day by day, the direction of market-oriented reform is clear, and the operation and management efficiency is steadily improved. Under the optimization of governance, the company will release the growth potential to the greatest extent and enter a new era of high-quality development.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 41.39 yuan, 49.55 yuan and 58.10 yuan respectively, and the corresponding valuations will be 42 times, 35 times and 30 times respectively. In 2022, the company's volume and price rise together, with strong certainty, can accelerate growth and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the risk of sharp economic decline and the risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic.
