\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 438 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) )
Main points:
The company announced the operating data from January to February 2022, and the revenue and net profit increased significantly year-on-year
The company announced the main business data from January to February 2022. According to the company’s preliminary accounting, the company achieved an operating revenue of about 16 billion yuan, an increase of about 130% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 3.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 650%. Revenue and net profit increased significantly year-on-year.
By the end of 2021, the company’s silicon material and silicon wafer production capacity increased significantly, and the shipment volume is expected to increase sharply this year
By the end of 2021, the company’s silicon material production capacity has reached 180000 tons, and the battery chip production capacity has reached more than 40gw. It is expected that the company’s silicon wafer and battery wafer shipments will maintain high growth this year, with growth rates of 60% – 70% / 25% – 35% respectively.
The decline in raw material prices has driven down the cost of silicon materials, and the cost per ton is expected to remain at a high level
Since January this year, the price of industrial silicon has continued to decline. According to Aetna data, the average price of industrial silicon since the beginning of the year has been about 21300 yuan / ton, down 97.4% from the fourth quarter of 2021. The decline of industrial silicon price will drive the decline of silicon material cost. According to our prediction, the company’s profit per ton of silicon material in the first quarter is expected to maintain 120000130000 yuan / ton.
At present, the demand of photovoltaic industry is still strong, and the price of silicon material rises slightly. In the second quarter, the new silicon material production capacity of the industry is limited, and the silicon material price is expected to still have some support. We expect that silicon material will continue to maintain a high profit level throughout the year.
Investment advice
We predict that the silicon material price will remain high in the first half of the year, and the price will decline slowly in the second half of the year. The profitability of the company’s silicon material business is considerable. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 2022 / 2023 will be 14.8/15.9 billion yuan, corresponding to PE 13X / 12x. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The rise of demand and price is lower than expected; The price fell more than expected; Production capacity release progress is less than expected; Deterioration of international trade protection policy
