\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
The company released the operating data from January to February 2022. According to the announcement, during the Spring Festival in 2022, the company’s product sales increased well and achieved a “good start”. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 2.45 billion yuan, an increase of about 25% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 940 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 26%.
The product structure has been steadily improved, and the expansion outside the province has been steadily promoted. According to the previous performance forecast disclosure, the company’s performance grew steadily in 2021, the continuous improvement of the company’s product structure, the realization of scale effect of expenses and other factors may promote the upward profit margin of the company. In terms of product structure, the revenue of special a + products in the first three quarters was 3.54 billion yuan, yoy + 38.4%, accounting for 66.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5pct. The company’s performance forecast predicts that the revenue growth rate of special a + products will exceed 35% in 21 years, and the revenue proportion will increase to about 65%, with a year-on-year increase of about 5pct. The product structure will improve steadily. We expect that the company will continue the trend of structural upgrading in 2022, V series and Sikai products above secondary high-end products maintained rapid growth; In terms of regional expansion, the revenue of the company in Jiangsu Province increased by 26% in the first three quarters, of which the revenue of Huai’an / Nanjing / Yancheng / Southern Jiangsu / Central Jiangsu / Huaihai increased by 20% / 21% / 15% / 40% / 33% / 52% respectively. The strategic markets in southern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu maintained good growth, and there was still room for subsidence in the north and permeability improvement in the south of the province; In the first three quarters, the revenue outside the province increased by 37%, accounting for 7.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5pct. We expect that the company will still take Southern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu as the main incremental markets in the province in 2022, and the revenue outside the province will still maintain steady growth.
In 2022, the “four campaigns” will be deepened around the policy of 13455. According to the disclosure of Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) 2022 development conference, the company has made it clear that the marketing policy of 13445 in 2022: 1 refers to focusing on quality and concentrating on new leaps. 3 refers to the three modernizations strategy, highlighting differentiation, building core competitiveness, striving for high-end, seizing new competitive tracks, speeding up full flower, and fighting a breakthrough war outside the province. 4 refers to industry confidence, brand confidence, quality confidence and development confidence. 4 refers to deepening the “four battles”: 1) unswervingly, strive to improve the potential energy of V9 brand, promote supremacy, sell business, and have V9 first and then V series; 2) Improve quality and expand coverage, continue to strengthen the basic market of opening system, enlarge the popularity of brand reputation, improve the control and profit sharing system, and continue to promote regional intensive cultivation; 3) Highlight the characteristics and strengthen the effectiveness of Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) brand activation; 4) Take multiple measures at the same time to accelerate the market breakthrough of sectors outside the province, coordinate the layout of dual brands, build diversified sectors, and cultivate innovative new consumption. 5 refers to strengthening the five guarantees, upgrading the marketing organization (strengthening V9 business unit, establishing Guoyuan Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) business unit and Gaogou sales company), increasing market investment, deepening process reform, implementing the business excellence plan and improving the incentive mechanism. We believe that the 13455 marketing policy will help the company strengthen the “brand + channel” two wheel drive strategy and achieve high-quality development.
Investment suggestion: the company has successfully achieved a “good start” in 2022. It is expected that the proportion of special a + products will increase and the product structure will continue to improve. It is expected that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.4/79/9.7 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 19.6/24.8/31.4 yuan respectively. The corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 30 / 23 / 18x respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) economic fluctuations exceed expectations, affect high-end demand and squeeze V-series and other growth space; 2) The intensified competition in the province has caused the dynamic sales of leading products to be less than expected and the price is unbalanced; 3) The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
