\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 128 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) )
Event: on March 9, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) released the announcement on the main business conditions from January to February 2022.
Revenue and profit growth increased significantly, significantly exceeding expectations. From January to February, the company’s revenue was 1.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.0%, an increase of 11.6pct over the annual growth rate of 21 years; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 480 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, 4.5pct higher than the annual growth rate of 21 years. The sharp increase in revenue growth may be due to the resonance between the accelerated expansion and the recovery of interest rate spread, and the business prosperity rebounded sharply.
The expansion of the meter is rapid, greatly exceeding the progress of last year. By the end of February, the total assets had increased by 8.1% compared with the beginning of the year, and the increment was equivalent to 52% of the annual increment of 21 years (21q1 was 55% of that year); Among them, the net increase in loans was 9.5 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8% over the beginning of the year, equivalent to 31% in 21 years (25% in 21q1), which means that the net increase in the two months of this year has significantly exceeded the net increase in the first quarter of last year. The growth of deposits was significantly ahead of that of loans. Deposits increased by 11.6% compared with the beginning of the year, with a net increase of 21.5 billion yuan, equivalent to 90% of the annual increment in 21 years (76% in 21q1). The good collection of reserves indicates that the cost of liabilities may be dominant, and the net interest margin is expected to continue to rise.
From this point of view, Jiangsu inner city rural commercial bank has a high certainty of “a good start”. Changshu is representative of Jiangsu Province. The “good start” from January to February is likely to be the case of other urban and rural commercial banks in Jiangsu Province. The performance in the first quarter may generally exceed expectations. In addition, the 2022 government work report does not mention the incremental target of big banks to benefit small and micro enterprises, indicating that with the normalization of epidemic control, policy support may gradually decline. For urban and rural commercial banks focusing on small and micro businesses, some market demand may be released.
Asset quality remains excellent. By the end of February, the non-performing loan ratio was 0.81%, the same as that at the end of 21; The provision coverage rate was 521.0%, down 11 PCT from the end of the 21st century, but remained at a high level.
Investment suggestions: “a good start” tamps high growth, accelerates the annual performance or expected expansion, launches the first shot of “high expansion” urban rural commercial banks, and supports the performance boom to a higher level; The advance of launch progress, early investment and early collection, and the subsequent decline of the bank’s inclusive small and micro policies may lead to good annual performance. It is estimated that the EPS of 22 / 23 years will be 0.95 yuan and 1.14 yuan respectively. The closing price on March 9, 2022 corresponds to 1.0 times of 21-year Pb, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the downward pressure on the economy is increasing; The bad classification policy is becoming stricter; The supervision is stronger than expected.
