\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 709 Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) )
Key investment points
From January to February of 22, the company realized a revenue of 3.3 billion yuan, an increase of 260% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 860 million yuan, an increase of 470%. Among them, the electrolyte business is expected to contribute nearly 800 million profits, iron phosphate contributes nearly 60 million, and the daily chemical profit is about 30 million, with both volume and profit rising higher than the market expectation. The price of hexafluoride has great elasticity, and the profit of electrolyte has increased significantly month on month.
In Q1, the proportion of self supply of hexafluoride increased, the net profit per ton reached a new high, and the expected volume of hexafluoride in the whole year increased simultaneously. From January to February, we expect to ship 35 Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) 00 tons of electrolyte, corresponding to a single ton profit of 20000 yuan / ton +, which is significantly higher than that of about 14000 yuan / ton in 21q4. This is mainly due to the release of the company's hexafluoride production capacity, and the self supply proportion has increased to nearly 100%. At the same time, we expect to start the volume of new lithium salt to improve the profit per ton. We expect the company to ship 6 Shenzhen Sdg Information Co.Ltd(000070) 000 tons in Q1, with a ring increase of 25%. The company has sufficient low-cost lithium carbonate inventory. It is expected that the net profit per ton in March will maintain the level from January to February, and the electrolyte business in Q1 is expected to increase month on month.
Downstream demand is strong, production scheduling continues to rise, and the integration proportion increases. The off-season of 2022q1 industry is not light, and the company's production scheduling continues to improve. It is expected that 350000 tons + of electrolyte will be shipped in the whole year, doubling year-on-year. In terms of profitability, the price of hexafluoro powder is maintained at nearly 500000 / ton, while the price of the company is stable in the long-term single year. We expect lifsi to start the volume, and the shipment is expected to be about 8000 tons. The profitability of the company in the whole year is expected to be higher than that in 21 years, and the annual volume of the company is expected to rise together. The company has built three bases in Ningde, Guangzhou and Jiujiang. In addition, Liyang, Fuding, Jiujiang and Nantong are successively under construction, with a total capacity of 1.4 million tons + and a huge long-term plan. The company's hexafluoride production expansion and speed-up, with an additional 30000 tons in the first half of 22 years and an effective production capacity of 50000 tons in 22 years. In addition, the company has accelerated the production capacity layout of lifsi. At present, the production capacity of 6000 tons is full, and Q2 is full of production and sales. It is expected to add 10000 tons of production capacity in 22 years. In addition, the company also has VC, lithium difluorophosphate, DTD and other new additives, and the production capacity will be gradually released in 22-23 years, so as to strengthen the company's integrated competitiveness and increase profits, which can effectively hedge the decline of hexafluoride price cycle.
The traditional daily chemical industry grew steadily, and iron phosphate contributed to part of the profits, with a high growth in 22 years. From January to February, iron phosphate is expected to ship 10 Yihua Healthcare Co.Ltd(000150) 00 tons, the short-term net profit per ton is expected to be 5000 yuan +, and iron phosphate is expected to ship 100000 tons in the whole year. With the scale, the profit per ton is expected to maintain; From January to February, the daily chemical industry is expected to contribute 30 million yuan of profit. Throughout the year, kapom is expected to contribute 80 million yuan of profit, and the traditional daily chemical industry contributes 140 million yuan, with a total profit of 200 million yuan +.
Investment suggestion: the company's profitability exceeded expectations. We raised the net profit from 2021 to 2023 to RMB 2.207/5.544/7.208 billion (originally expected to be RMB 2.02/4.601/5.500 billion), a year-on-year increase of + 314% / 151% / 30%, corresponding to PE of 38 / 15 / 12 times. We gave PE of 26 times in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 150.3 yuan, and maintained the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the policy is less than the market expectation, and the competition intensifies.
