\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 985 China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) )
Core view
Backed by CNNC, "nuclear power + new energy" two wheel drive. The company is the only listed operator of nuclear power and new energy under CNNC. In 2021, the company's total installed capacity was 31.42 million KW, an increase of 23% year-on-year. Among them, the installed capacity of nuclear power was 22.55 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, accounting for 71.8%; The installed capacity of new energy reached 8.87 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 69%, accounting for 28.2%, an increase of 17.6pct over last year.
Solve the problem of energy transformation and increase the volume and price of nuclear power. With the transformation of "double carbon" target, nuclear power has the advantages of green, low comprehensive cost, stable output and high energy density, and its importance has increased under the new power system. The advantages of nuclear power are analyzed from four dimensions: installed capacity, utilization hours, electricity price and cost. During the construction of new power system, the price of electric energy generally rises, and there is room for the utilization of nuclear power hours and electricity price to rise; Nuclear power approval has returned to normal, and the medium and long-term installed capacity has increased steadily; In the long run, the cost of the third-generation and fourth-generation nuclear power projects with safety advantages has room for further decline, and the yield will continue to rise. When the cost is reduced to 15000 yuan / kW, the internal rate of return of the project is expected to reach 18.3%.
The performance in 2021 is in line with expectations and maintains a high growth rate. The company issued a performance express. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 62.367 billion yuan (+ 19.3%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.037 billion yuan (+ 34.1%), maintaining a rapid growth; Mainly due to 1) installed capacity growth: in 2021, the company's nuclear power units Tianwan 6 and Fuqing 5 were put into operation, and the installed capacity of new energy increased significantly by more than 3.6gw. 2) Increase in utilization hours: the average utilization hours in 2021 was 7871 hours, an increase of 250 hours year-on-year. The foreign exchange gain was 832 million yuan, an increase of 317% over the previous year.
The short-term performance of nuclear power is released and the long-term improvement is good. The company put into operation in 2021 with a total installed capacity of 3.44 million kw of nuclear power. Fuqing No. 6 operated at full power of 1.16 million kW in February 2022, and released its performance in full in 2022. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company undertook all the approved nuclear power in China, with a total of 5.203 million KW. The policy supports the active and orderly development of nuclear power under the guarantee of safety, which is conducive to the long-term development of the company.
New energy has filled the gap of nuclear power, and there is huge room for development. Through the acquisition of the group's new energy platform, the company has become the main body of the group's new energy development and enjoys multiple priorities in new energy development. The company's guidelines will hold 30GW of new energy installed capacity at the end of the 14th five year plan, about 6 times that of new energy at the end of 2020. The addition of new energy business will fill the gap in the commissioning of nuclear power units in 2023 and help the steady growth of overall performance.
Risk tips
The installed growth rate of new energy and nuclear power did not meet expectations, the rise of electricity price was less than expected, and the utilization rate fell.
Maintain "buy" rating
We expect the company's earnings per share of 0.44/0.68/0.74 yuan (the previous value of 0.45/0.56/0.63 yuan) in 21-23 years, and the profit growth rate is 34% / 54% / 9% respectively. Through multi angle valuation, it is concluded that the reasonable valuation range of the company is 10.83-11.38 yuan, which is 45% - 52% higher than the current share price. We believe that the company's performance will increase significantly in 2022, with sustained growth in the long term and maintaining the "buy" rating.
