\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) announcement: after preliminary accounting, from January to February 2022, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of more than 7.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 35%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be more than 2.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%. The announcement also pointed out that the reason for the increase was the substantial growth of medium and high-end products such as blue and white series.
The nationwide expansion is smooth and the growth quality is high. Channel research shows that the nationwide expansion is smooth, and the proportion outside 21q3 province has exceeded 60%. During the spring of the 22nd year of the Yuan Dynasty, under the environment that East China and South China were continuously affected by the epidemic, the company still achieved growth exceeding market expectations. It can be seen that the growth elasticity is resilient, and the annual growth target is expected to exceed expectations. From the perspective of growth quality, dealers and terminals all over the country feed back that the inventory is low and the dynamic sales are strong. The wholesale price in Hunan Gaoqiao market is not different from that in the whole country, which also proves that the channel control effect of the company is good in the second half of 21 years.
The structure has been continuously improved, and there are highlights in all price segments: from the perspective of products, the announcement disclosed that medium and high-end sweat wiping products such as blue and white series have achieved significant growth. Blue and white 20 has unique fragrance and bright performance in the price range of Tus-Design Group Co.Ltd(300500) yuan. At present, the wholesale price of qing20 is about 375 yuan, and the wholesale price of revived qing30 is 860870 yuan. We are optimistic about the leading dividends brought by the expansion of secondary high-end capacity and share harvest. Bofen has a strong attraction in the light bottle wine. While continuing to control the quantity this year, there is no lack of new product expectations, which is expected to drive Bofen to upgrade upward.
Continue excellent management and deepen reform. In terms of management, the company's technical means have always been leading and its strategy is clear, and the impact of management change on efficiency and team vitality has not been observed; As a representative of the national sub high-end, the company reflects the steady growth elasticity of the industry, especially the national sub high-end. At present, the company's peg has been adjusted to a more attractive level.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: maintain the "buy" rating. It is estimated that the total operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 20.8072677733729 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 48.73% / 28.69% / 25.96%; The net profit was 5.485/74.48/9.757 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 78.14% / 35.78% / 31.00%, the corresponding EPS was 4.50/6.10/8.00 yuan, and the corresponding PE was 60, 44 and 34 times respectively. Key recommendations.
Risk warning: the global epidemic continues to spread; Secondary high-end competition intensifies; Food safety issues.
