\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 438 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) )
Event: the company announced its main business data from January to February 2022. From January to February 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of about 16 billion yuan, an increase of about 130% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 3.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of about 650%.
The boom is expected to boost the downstream production capacity and ensure the smooth increase of silicon demand from Q1 to February 2022. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, since the price of silicon materials stopped falling and rose slightly on January 12, 2022, the price of silicon materials has continued to rise for eight consecutive weeks as of March 9, 2022, driven by the off-season of 2022q1 (mainly due to the high demand of China’s distributed demand and overseas India), the continuous improvement of silicon wafer operating rate and the lower than expected increase of silicon material enterprise production expansion, On March 9, 2022, the highest transaction price of single crystal re feeding returned to the high level of 250000 yuan / ton. The sales volume of Yunnan Baoshan Energy Co., Ltd. and Baoshan new energy Co., Ltd. are expected to increase by 10000 tons at the end of 2021 ~ 2022, and the sales volume of Yunnan Baoshan Energy Co., Ltd. and Baoshan new energy Co., Ltd. are expected to increase by 10000 tons at the end of 2021 ~ 2022.
The silicon material production capacity is gradually released, but the supply and demand situation is still relatively tight, and the silicon material price will remain high in 22 years. Although Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , poly GCL, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) and other silicon enterprises will release silicon production capacity in 2022 (it is expected that China’s silicon production capacity is expected to exceed 1 million tons by the end of 22), under the background that the newly put into production capacity still needs to climb, some capacity will not form effective production in 2022; At the same time, the terminal demand continues to improve under the background of the decline in the price of the industrial chain. We maintain our judgment that the photovoltaic demand is expected to exceed 220gw in 2022. The strong demand for silicon material will play a supporting role in its price, and the possibility of rapid and sharp price decline is low. We judge that the average price of silicon material in 2022 is expected to remain above 180 yuan / kg.
The production capacity of battery cells has expanded steadily, and the two technical routes go hand in hand. The 15gw battery project of the company’s cooperation with Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) is progressing steadily. It is estimated that the total battery capacity of the company will exceed 55gw by the end of 22, of which 210 will exceed 35gw. In addition, based on the new 1GW heterojunction pilot test line, the company plans to carry out technical transformation and upgrading of some existing perc production lines and build 1gwtopcon pilot test line. The joint research and development of the two technical routes is also conducive to maintaining the company’s leading edge in battery technology.
Maintain the “buy” rating: Although the supply of silicon materials is gradually released, the relative supply and demand situation is still relatively tight. We slightly adjust the company’s performance in 21 years based on the company’s performance express, and increase the performance in 22 / 23 years. It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years will be RMB 8.203177.05/19.677 billion (down 1% / up 20% / up 22%), corresponding to eps1.5% 82 / 3.93/4.37 yuan. The current share price corresponds to 24 / 11 / 10 times of PE in 21-23 years. As the absolute leader of silicon materials, the company leads the industry in the pace of production expansion, the market share will be further improved in the future, and the layout of large-size batteries / modules is also expected to bring additional increment to the company’s profit and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the installed capacity of photovoltaic industry is less than expected; The company’s production capacity and product sales are lower than expected; The intensity of overcapacity price war is higher than expected; The company’s technical route is wrong or capacity expansion cannot keep up with the trend.
