\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Key investment points
Event: the company issued the announcement of main business data from January to February 2022 on March 9, 2022. After preliminary accounting, from January to February 2022, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of more than 7.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 35%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be more than 2.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%.
Comments:
The company made a good start and ended successfully in 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company took the initiative to control the delivery rhythm. During the Spring Festival in 2022, the dealers had high enthusiasm for payment, and the channel inventory of the company’s core products was at a relatively low level. 2022 had a good start and ended successfully. From January to February 2022, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of more than 7.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 35%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be more than 2.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%. Affected by epidemic factors, the company’s revenue in the first quarter of 2021 achieved rapid growth based on the low base in 2020. As the low base factor subsided, the growth rate of the company’s operating revenue slowed down from January to February 2022. Considering that in 2021, the company focused on the sprint from January to February, and the overall volume of products in March was less, it is expected that the base pressure of the company’s revenue in March 2022 is relatively small, and the company’s performance in the first quarter of 2022 is expected.
Blue and white achieved rapid growth and the brand potential continued to rise. In the process of development, the company adheres to the product strategy of “grasping blue and white, strengthening waist and stabilizing glass Fen”, and implements blue and white glass Fen two wheel drive. Among them, the company’s blue and white series mainly enhance the brand influence. According to the operating data released by the company from January to February, the medium and high-end products such as Qinghua Fenjiu series have achieved substantial growth, the operating revenue and net profit have reached a record high, the Qinghua brand is likely to continue the upward trend, and the high-end process continues to advance. At present, the price of blue and white 20 is about 375 yuan, and the price of blue and white 30 revival version is about 860 yuan. At the same time, the volume of the company’s Bofen products increased steadily after the favorable price, and the company’s product structure was further optimized.
The nationwide layout was accelerated and the marketing structure was further optimized. At present, the company is committed to national layout and deepening the market strategy of “1357 + 10”. While giving full play to the advantageous regional market around Shanxi, the company has strengthened the expansion of the market in the south of the Yangtze River, promoted steady breakthroughs in the markets of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Anhui and Guangdong, and radiated to the national market from point to area. Since 2021, the company has further optimized the marketing organization structure, realized the alternation of new and old marketing backbone, and injected new development power into the development of marketing team. At the same time, the company actively strengthens the channel layout, improves the channel penetration and expands the market influence of the brand. By the end of 2021, the company had more than 1 million controllable terminal outlets in the national market.
The new chairman clearly sets the tone of the company’s future strategic development, and the company’s high-quality development can be expected. At the global distributor conference of Fenjiu in 2021, the new chairman pointed out that the next three years will be a major strategic development period of Fenjiu, and 2022 is very important. At the same time, the chairman put forward “Four Focuses” and “four insistences” for the future high-quality development at the meeting, and pointed out that the blue and white series will continue to be an important starting point for the development of the company, give further play to the potential energy of strong brands and improve market recognition. In addition, the company will implement the overall reform policy of “133238” in the next stage, further strengthen the reform of marketing organization around the three markets, and the company can expect high-quality development in the future.
Maintain recommended ratings. It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2021 to 2022 will be 4.48 yuan and 6.06 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 61 times and 45 times respectively. The company made a successful start in 2022. As a leading liquor of Qingxiang Baijiu, the company will continue the keynote of “Fen speed”, increase brand influence and continuously optimize the product and channel structure. Under the catalysis of multi-party reform, the company’s performance is expected to have greater elastic growth space in the future. Maintain the “recommended” rating of the company.
Risk warning. Product promotion is less than expected, market expansion is less than expected, industry competition intensifies, macroeconomic problems and food safety problems
