\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 438 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) )
Key investment points:
Event: the company issued the announcement of main business data from January to February 2022. According to the company’s preliminary accounting, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 10.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%.
Comments:
Last year’s performance increased significantly, and 2022 achieved a good start. According to the company’s performance express in 2021, the company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 66.602 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 50.68%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.203 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.35%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 8.382 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 248.03%. According to the calculation, the company is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.258 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 821%; It is expected to realize a net profit of RMB 2.451 billion, a year-on-year increase of 494%. In the first quarter of 2022, due to strong downstream demand and booming production and sales of the company’s main products, the company’s performance in the first quarter will maintain high growth and achieve a good start in 2022.
The company’s polysilicon production capacity was released, driving high performance growth. By the end of 2021, the company’s annual production capacity of high-purity crystalline silicon has reached 180000 tons, which is significantly higher than that of 80000 tons in 2020. With the completion and operation of the company’s planned projects, it is expected that the company’s production capacity of high-purity crystalline silicon will further reach 330000 tons and 430000 tons from 2022 to 2023 respectively. According to the silicon industry branch, as of March 9, 2022, the average transaction prices of single crystal re feeding, single crystal compact and single crystal cauliflower materials in China were 246600 yuan / ton, 243900 yuan / ton and 241200 yuan / ton respectively, with a weekly increase of 0.16%, 0.12% and 0.12% respectively. The average rose for the seventh time in a row. On March 9, the weekly prices rose by 5.89% respectively compared with the end of last year 5.64% and 5.70%. At present, the photovoltaic industry maintains a high boom and strong downstream demand. It is expected that the polysilicon price will remain high in the first quarter of 2022, driving the company’s performance to maintain a high increase.
The price of battery chips increased, and the superimposed capacity expanded rapidly to consolidate the leading position. On March 8, 2022, due to the strong downstream demand, the company adjusted the battery quotation and maintained 166 batteries at 1.11 yuan / W; Increase by 1.01 yuan / w to 182 yuan / W; 210 battery increased by 0.02 yuan / w to 1.16 yuan / W, an increase of 1.8%. With the completion and operation of the company’s battery projects, it is expected that the total capacity of the company’s battery will exceed 55gw in 2022, an increase of 20GW compared with 2021, of which the capacity of 210 large-size batteries will exceed 35gw. According to the 2021 annual battery shipment ranking released by PV InfoLink, Tongwei’s Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) total shipment volume has ranked first again since it first topped the list in 2017. This year, with the rapid expansion of the company’s battery production capacity and the increase in the proportion of large-size batteries, it will strengthen the profitability of battery chips and consolidate the leading position of batteries.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.82 yuan, 3.59 yuan and 3.81 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 24 times, 12 times and 11 times respectively, maintaining the recommended rating.
Risk warning: the downstream installed demand is less than the expected risk; Risk that the production expansion progress is less than expected; Increased international trade friction and other risks.
