\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Event: Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) released the main performance data of 2021. It is estimated that the operating revenue will be about 66.2 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 15%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be about 23.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 17%. 21q4 achieved a revenue of 16.479 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of about 11%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.023 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 11.35%.
It is estimated that the volume and price of main brands will rise steadily. 1) In terms of products, the planned / planned out factory price has been implemented since the 21st year of the general five year plan. The actual average price has increased under the price dual track system. The increment of the general five year plan is limited, and the increment outside the plan is relatively obvious. Considering that the actual delivery in 21 years is affected by the quota not issued in 20 years, it is estimated that the actual dynamic sales performance in 21 years is better than the data confirmed in the report. The actual dynamic sales CAGR in the general five year plan from 2019 to 2021 is about 14%, superimposed with the contribution of ton price, it is estimated that the actual dynamic sales CAGR is expected to reach 20%. Classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) 21 has been promoted since July. According to the launch, it is estimated that the actual dynamic sales are about 3-4 billion yuan, and 1618 also contributes a certain increment. The low Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) performance is relatively stable. The series wine product matrix was further optimized, and the number of brands and products was reduced by 80%. It is estimated that the series wine will also contribute to the structural upgrading. 2) It is estimated that the net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 21 years is 35.27%, a slight increase of 0.46pct year-on-year, and the net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 36.55%, which is basically the same year-on-year.
During the Spring Festival of 22 years, the dynamic sales were stable, and the certainty of Q1 performance growth was high. The performance of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) mobile sales in the peak Spring Festival season of 22 years is stable. At present, the payment collection progress is more than 40%. Some large merchants have completed the payment for the whole year before the festival in the form of acceptance bill, and the delivery progress is estimated to be 30% +. The inventory at the dealer level is benign, and the growth certainty of Q1 performance is strong. From the perspective of market feedback, the demand resilience of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is relatively prominent under the repeated epidemic and the overall consumer demand in some areas. Henan, Jiangsu and other Baijiu provinces all have feedback on the smooth implementation of the five. Throughout the year, the comprehensive price of puwu signed in 22 years reached 969 yuan / bottle, and the average price increased by about 6%. It is expected that puwu will still increase both volume and price. The classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price increase, 1618 increase in delivery and personalized products also contribute to a certain increment. The series of wines also set a higher target. From a comprehensive point of view, it is more likely to continue 15% of the year + revenue growth.
The repressive factors are gradually lifted, and the valuation is expected to be repaired. At present, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ‘s valuation in high-end Baijiu is obviously lagging behind, mainly due to the worries about the adjustment of the internal management level before the market, and the slower pace of the promotion of the five PO price. However, on the whole, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has strong fundamental support, and there is no need to worry about the certainty of performance growth. The leadership changed smoothly in February, and the market concerns may be gradually relieved. At present, the price of puwu is about 960970 yuan. However, considering that the problem of historical shortage of goods is gradually solved, the pressure of heavy volume in the off-season is small, and the cost of taking goods is increased, the subsequent price of puwu is expected to rise, and the valuation level is expected to be gradually repaired.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: according to the performance forecast, the net profit forecast for 2021 is slightly reduced to 23.39 billion (compared with the previous forecast – 2.42%), and the net profit forecast for 202223 is maintained at 28.725/34.208 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 6.03/7.40/8.81 yuan respectively. The corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 27 / 22 / 18 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: demand for high-end Baijiu is weak. The price of Pu five is not as good as expected, and the market competition is intensified.
