\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 96 Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) )
Key investment points:
Performance overview: the company released the annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.448 billion yuan / + 104.13%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 958 million yuan / + 117.81%, an operating revenue of 425 million yuan / + 73.47% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 249 million yuan / + 67.11% in a single quarter in 2021q4.
Revenue: the core product "Hi body" series continued to boost the high growth of revenue, and the new product "moistening angel" gradually increased in volume. 1) The revenue of solution injection products (HI body and Yimei) is 1.046 billion yuan / + 133.84%, accounting for 72.25% / + 9.18 PCTs, the gross profit margin is 93.82% / + 1.37 PCTs, and the sales volume is 2.7232 million pieces / + 119.27%. At present, the terminal penetration rate of fine injection at neck lines and periocular parts is still low. We believe that "Hi body" series products are expected to continue to grow high with differentiated positioning; 2) gel injection products (including angel, Bonnie, Yimei 1 plus 1, Ai Fu Lai, Ai Mei Fei) revenue 385 million yuan /+52.80%, accounting for 26.61%/-8.95pcts, gross profit margin 94.55%/+2.61pcts, sales volume of 706 thousand and 400 /+15.74%, of which bonnie is expected to grow faster. After the core product "yubai angel" was approved by the food and Drug Administration for listing in June 2021, it has steadily increased its volume in various types of institutions across the country, contributing a certain income to the company 2021h2; 3) The revenue of facial implant line is 5.2997 million yuan / + 187.68%, accounting for 0.37%; 4) Cosmetics revenue is 110971 million yuan / + 40.73%, accounting for 0.77%.
Profitability: increase the proportion of high-value products, optimize the income structure, and maintain a high level of profitability.
The proportion of the company's products with high unit price and high gross profit continued to increase. Among them, the "Hi body" series products are still growing in large quantities. The superimposed new product "moistening angel" has begun to contribute some revenue, and the company's revenue structure has been further optimized. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin increased by 1.89pcts to 93.70% year-on-year, and the cost rate during the optimization period decreased by 4.07pcts to 18.76% year-on-year. In terms of spin off projects, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio increased from + 0.81pcts / - 1.66pcts / - 1.64pcts / - 1.57pcts to 10.81% / 4.47% / 7.07% / - 3.59% year-on-year. Considering that the new product "moistening angel" is still in the promotion stage, we expect the company's sales expense ratio to increase in 2022. On the whole, the company's gross profit margin increased in 2021, and the expense rate decreased during the period of increase, driving the company's return to parent net profit margin to increase by 4.10pcts to 66.16% year-on-year in 2021, and the company's profitability remained high.
Core focus: the strict supervision of the industry drives the regulatory and rational development of the industry, and the company is in a leading position β And α Value.
1) regulations have been issued one after another, driving the medical and beauty industry to gradually develop in compliance and head-on, and the company β Logical reinforcement. Since the joint enforcement of the law by eight ministries and commissions in June last year, the industry policy supervision has gradually become stricter, which has aroused the market's concern about the prosperity of the industry. However, we have always stressed that stricter supervision will accelerate the liquidation of long tail enterprises, improve the concentration of head Enterprises, and return the market share of parallel and fake goods to the formal market Legal and compliance institutions will jointly promote the healthy development of the industry for a long time. Looking ahead to the future, taking the development history of the medical beauty industry in the United States and South Korea as an example, we believe that China's medical beauty industry will inevitably experience many pains of strict industry supervision in the process of gradual development and growth, but the demand is constant, and the stricter supervision will accelerate the compliance market to replace the non-compliance market share. After the gradual expansion of the compliance market, It will promote the healthy growth of China's medical and American market in expelling bad currencies with good currencies and strengthen the company's competitiveness β Logic.
2) products have differentiated competitive advantages, clear business logic, enabling terminal institutions and companies α Value highlights. From the product side, the company's "Hi body" still monopolizes the neck fine line market at this stage, and the product dividend period is expected to continue for a long time. The new "moistening angel" focuses on "immediate filling + long-term repair", which can solve the pain points of the current ordinary hyaluronic acid filling market. The product positioning is quite different from the mainstream filling agents in the market, It is expected to usher in the starting stage after April this year, and the company's performance growth is highly uncertain. In terms of pipeline development, the company has also actively deployed botulinum toxin (which is expected to be on sale in 2024), three embedded line products (which are expected to be approved in 2-3 and 20242026 years this year), modified sodium hyaluronate gel, which is used to treat mental retraction of Medical Polyvinyl Alcohol Gel Microspheres, is expected to be on sale in 20242025 years, and is coated with topical local anesthetic products (which are expected to be on sale in 2023). In addition, the pipeline of products under development will also lay out the health management market. Liraglutide injection for chronic weight management has completed phase I clinical trial (expected to be approved in 2025), which highlights the growth value of the company. From the perspective of business logic, the company's products accurately locate the indications. At first, the strong connection between the indications and the products is used to establish the consumer's mind, and then the products are extended according to the feedback from the terminal channel, which once again strengthens the consumer's mind, helps the terminal institutions reduce the customer acquisition cost to a certain extent, and superimposes the company's continuous channel and institutional education in recent years, The company has strong stickiness with the middle and lower reaches, and its leading position in the industry is stable.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the tightening of supervision will accelerate the head and compliance of the industry and benefit the long-term development of the industry. The company has product pipeline layout in the three fields of hyaluronic acid, botulinum toxin and recycled materials, which continues to drive the upgrading and iteration of the supply side of medical beauty. In addition, strong R & D + high-quality products + deep channel operation will build a deep barrier for the company in the field of injection medical beauty, In addition, with clear business logic, continuous in-depth insight into consumer needs, and adhering to product power as the core of product design, the company has become a pioneer in China's medical beauty market. We estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 2.403/3.414/4.801 billion respectively (with growth rate of 66% / 42% / 41%), the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 1.482/2.096/2.934 billion respectively (with growth rate of 55% / 41% / 40%), the EPS will be RMB 6.85/9.69/13.56 respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current market value will be 69x / 49x / 35x respectively. As a leader in the medical and beauty industry, the company has strong performance cashing ability. The company is given 65x-70xpe in 2023, and the target price range is 629.85-678.30 yuan. It is recommended to actively pay attention to the medium and long-term value of the company and maintain the "recommended" rating of the company.
Risk warning: the R & D progress is less than expected; The progress of product approval is less than expected; Risk of cosmetic medical malpractice; Industry competition intensifies risks.
